[M T]

Now that Marta has upped her offensive production, Alanna is on a tear, Britt has cooled, Bri and Karlie are getting their three-point shots back,...  The downside, of course, is we lack a predictable player who performs big every single game.

Almost by definition, there is practically a one-to-one mapping between losses and having players that don't perform big.  After seeming so unstoppable against Stanford, Wiese had only 6 points on 2 of 12 shooting and 7 TO against UCLA.  Clearly Stanford focused on Wiese but she had a big second half + OTs.  I believe OSU focused on preventing Karlie from getting any 3-point shots. (BTW, I still didn't notice plays designed to get Karlie open against Utah.)

Karlie - I don't think Karlie ever lost her 3-point shot, at least not this year.  At 47.6% 3pt% (efficiency equal to a post player hitting 71% of their 2-point shots), the problem almost has to be that Stanford doesn't make enough opportunities for her.  Against OSU, you have to wonder why Tara didn't insist upon some plays to get Karlie open (or, maybe she did, but OSU broke them up).  Our big scorer, Erica, only hit 33% of her 21 shots.  Clearly, anyone's efficiency is going to be affected by how their opponents play them.  Maybe Karlie would have gone 0-8 if she'd gotten 8 shots off, but we don't know.

Brittany - I think it isn't so much that Brittany has cooled, but that it is more that defenses have adapted to her in our play.  The fact that they are having to defend against her probably helps our other players.

Marta - I think that part of the reason that Marta has been doing better relative to her former play is that she hasn't been on the opponent's defensive plan.  Hopefully, her performance recently is going to warrant the defense being spread a little more which, in turn, will allow better offensive chances for our interior players, and perhaps better offensive rebounding.  (Her penchant for driving for layups will NOT improve our rebounding performance.  Our rebounders have to give her room.)

Rebounding - I still see way too much looking up, esp. by the second team players, when a shot is taken rather than looking for someone to block out on rebounds.  My impression is that the opponents do not respect our rebounding nor our ability to fast break off a rebound, so they stay under the boards on offense, hurting our defensive rebounding.  (Part of that is whether our guards push or tend to set up after a defensive rebound.  When Brittany is in, the team pushes more.  Bri can also get to the basket quickly if she chooses to.  When  Tara says she wants the team to run more, I think better rebounding is one of the goals.)

Alanna - I had more hopes for Alanna when she first joined the team.  While she's improved on the klutzy fouls, she's not gotten to her potential on rebounding.  She seems relatively strong and I think has the potential to be a great rebounder, but she doesn't focus on getting position.  Kaylee is our best at that.

Dominant player - As for the breadth of the team, anyone else remember Tara saying something like she wasn't comfortable with one player scoring so many of the team's points?  It would be interesting to plot the ratio of top-scorer point average / team average over the history of Stanford WBB.

Officiating - Can you believe that no official saw the elbow to the head of Karlie that dropped her to the floor???? 


Future opponents - When we play Washington, we should remember that Osahor has problems with controlling her emotions.  After a blatant (& excessive, IMO) over the back foul was called on here, she complained, walked away, turned and complained, walked away, turned & complained yet again.  I didn't hear when the official called the technical.  Then later in the game, the other UW player that is built like Osahor got called on a serious elbow to the head (at eye level, IIRC) of an opponent, possibly correctly ruled a flagrant 1 personal foul (but I forgot about rule 4-19-7b at the time).)

Efficiency - If ES is your expected score per shot, and OR is your offensive rebounding percentage per shot, your expected score per possession(EP) (where offensive rebounds continue a possession, and discounting fouls, turnovers and end of quarters) is EP = ES*(1+OR + OR^2 + OR^3 + ....) = ES/(1-OR) = E/DR.  For ES=1.4 and OR = 0.33,  that's almost 2.1.  A post player hitting 50% would have expected score per possession of only 1.5.  It would be interesting to see what the rebounding percentages are for half-court offense in-the-paint shots vs 3-pt shots.  Until the last couple of years, I feel that 3-pt shots had better OR percentage than in-the-paint shots, but that is based on perception not stats.  I wish BB stats listed possessions rather than making you deduce it (which means you have to go to the play-by-play).  I'd like to see team stats show points/possession.  Ahh... sidearmstats ("live stats" on gostanford.com schedule) does list possessions, but their stats seem to be ephemeral)

[M T]

Now that Marta has upped her offensive production, Alanna is on a tear, Britt has cooled, Bri and Karlie are getting their three-point shots back,...  The downside, of course, is we lack a predictable player who performs big every single game.

Almost by definition, there is practically a one-to-one mapping between losses and having players that don't perform big.  After seeming so unstoppable against Stanford, Wiese had only 6 points on 2 of 12 shooting and 7 TO against UCLA.  Clearly Stanford focused on Wiese but she had a big second half + OTs.  I believe OSU focused on preventing Karlie from getting any 3-point shots. (BTW, I still didn't notice plays designed to get Karlie open against Utah.)

Karlie - I don't think Karlie ever lost her 3-point shot, at least not this year.  At 47.6% 3pt% (efficiency equal to a post player hitting 71% of their 2-point shots), the problem almost has to be that Stanford doesn't make enough opportunities for her.  Against OSU, you have to wonder why Tara didn't insist upon some plays to get Karlie open (or, maybe she did, but OSU broke them up).  Our big scorer, Erica, only hit 33% of her 21 shots.  Clearly, anyone's efficiency is going to be affected by how their opponents play them.  Maybe Karlie would have gone 0-8 if she'd gotten 8 shots off, but we don't know.

Brittany - I think it isn't so much that Brittany has cooled, but that it is more that defenses have adapted to her in our play.  The fact that they are having to defend against her probably helps our other players.

Marta - I think that part of the reason that Marta has been doing better relative to her former play is that she hasn't been on the opponent's defensive plan.  Hopefully, her performance recently is going to warrant the defense being spread a little more which, in turn, will allow better offensive chances for our interior players, and perhaps better offensive rebounding.  (Her penchant for driving for layups will NOT improve our rebounding performance.  Our rebounders have to give her room.)

Rebounding - I still see way too much looking up, esp. by the second team players, when a shot is taken rather than looking for someone to block out on rebounds.  My impression is that the opponents do not respect our rebounding nor our ability to fast break off a rebound, so they stay under the boards on offense, hurting our defensive rebounding.  (Part of that is whether our guards push or tend to set up after a defensive rebound.  When Brittany is in, the team pushes more.  Bri can also get to the basket quickly if she chooses to.  When  Tara says she wants the team to run more, I think better rebounding is one of the goals.)

Alanna - I had more hopes for Alanna when she first joined the team.  While she's improved on the klutzy fouls, she's not gotten to her potential on rebounding.  She seems relatively strong and I think has the potential to be a great rebounder, but she doesn't focus on getting position.  Kaylee is our best at that.

Dominant player - As for the breadth of the team, anyone else remember Tara saying something like she wasn't comfortable with one player scoring so many of the team's points?  It would be interesting to plot the ratio of top-scorer point average / team average over the history of Stanford WBB.

Officiating - Can you believe that no official saw the elbow to the head of Karlie that dropped her to the floor???? 


Future opponents - When we play Washington, we should remember that Osahor has problems with controlling her emotions.  After a blatant (& excessive, IMO) over the back foul was called on here, she complained, walked away, turned and complained, walked away, turned & complained yet again.  I didn't hear when the official called the technical.  Then later in the game, the other UW player that is built like Osahor got called on a serious elbow to the head (at eye level, IIRC) of an opponent, possibly correctly ruled a flagrant 1 personal foul (but I forgot about rule 4-19-7b at the time).)

Efficiency - If ES is your expected score per shot, and OR is your offensive rebounding percentage per shot, your expected score per possession(EP) (where offensive rebounds continue a possession, and discounting fouls, turnovers and end of quarters) is EP = ES*(1+OR + OR^2 + OR^3 + ....) = ES/(1-OR) = E/DR.  For ES=1.4 and OR = 0.33,  that's almost 2.1.  A post player hitting 50% would have expected score per possession of only 1.5.  It would be interesting to see what the rebounding percentages are for half-court offense in-the-paint shots vs 3-pt shots.  Until the last couple of years, I feel that 3-pt shots had better OR percentage than in-the-paint shots, but that is based on perception not stats.  I wish BB stats listed possessions rather than making you deduce it (which means you have to go to the play-by-play).  I'd like to see team stats show points/possession.  Ahh... sidearmstats ("live stats" on gostanford.com schedule) does list possessions, but their stats seem to be ephemeral)