[BostonCard]

Except your formulation is not right either because you give an 8 seed the same credit for beating a 9 seed as you give a 16 seed for beating a 1 seed.  The best way to calculate the answer is to look at historical probabilities and actual versus expected wins.  I can't find the numbers for the women, but they are available for men: http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

So, for a two seed like us, 93.8% make it to the second round and 63.3% make it to the sweet sixteen, so the average number of wins is equal to 1.571.  We have two wins, so we exceeded expectations so far by .429 wins.  However, the average total number of wins for two seeds is 2.4, so if we lost in the next round, we would have underperformed by 0.4 games.

Of course, as I mentioned, that number is for the men, and there is less parity for the women, so those numbers are off.

BC

[BostonCard]

Except your formulation is not right either because you give an 8 seed the same credit for beating a 9 seed as you give a 16 seed for beating a 1 seed.  The best way to calculate the answer is to look at historical probabilities and actual versus expected wins.  I can't find the numbers for the women, but they are available for men: http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html

So, for a two seed like us, 93.8% make it to the second round and 63.3% make it to the sweet sixteen, so the average number of wins is equal to 1.571.  We have two wins, so we exceeded expectations so far by .429 wins.  However, the average total number of wins for two seeds is 2.4, so if we lost in the next round, we would have underperformed by 0.4 games.

Of course, as I mentioned, that number is for the men, and there is less parity for the women, so those numbers are off.

BC