[BostonCard]

So I ran the numbers, and here are the average number of wins through two rounds by seed:

#1: 1.91
#2: 1.79
#3: 1.64
#4: 1.53
#5: 1.08
#6: 0.93
#7: 0.79
#8: 0.49
#9: 0.55
#10: 0.38
#11: 0.40
#12: 0.25
#13: 0.09
#14: 0
#15: 0
#16: 0.01

So, for the Pac-12:

UCLA: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.53; performance +0.47
Oregon: record 2 - 0; expected wins 0.38; performance +1.62
Stanford: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.79; performance +0.21
ASU: record 1 - 1; expected wins 0.49; performance +0.51
Oregon State: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.79; performance +0.21
Cal: record 1 - 1; expected wins 0.55; performance +0.45
Washington: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.64; performance +.36

Overall: record 12 - 2; expected wins 8.07; performance +3.93

That is, so far the Pac-12 has almost 4 more wins than we might have expected based on historical seed performance.

BC

[BostonCard]

So I ran the numbers, and here are the average number of wins through two rounds by seed:

#1: 1.91
#2: 1.79
#3: 1.64
#4: 1.53
#5: 1.08
#6: 0.93
#7: 0.79
#8: 0.49
#9: 0.55
#10: 0.38
#11: 0.40
#12: 0.25
#13: 0.09
#14: 0
#15: 0
#16: 0.01

So, for the Pac-12:

UCLA: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.53; performance +0.47
Oregon: record 2 - 0; expected wins 0.38; performance +1.62
Stanford: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.79; performance +0.21
ASU: record 1 - 1; expected wins 0.49; performance +0.51
Oregon State: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.79; performance +0.21
Cal: record 1 - 1; expected wins 0.55; performance +0.45
Washington: record 2 - 0; expected wins 1.64; performance +.36

Overall: record 12 - 2; expected wins 8.07; performance +3.93

That is, so far the Pac-12 has almost 4 more wins than we might have expected based on historical seed performance.

BC