03-25-2017, 09:49 AM
Update on the swimming -- And a suggestion that tonight's finals will be very exciting, if properly framed by Stanford fans:
Through day 3 of 4, culminating last night, here are the standings:
Men - Team Rankings - Through Event 14Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
 1. Texas             391.5 2. California            253
 3. Florida            224.5 4. NC State             196
 5. Indiana            189.5 6. Stanford             160
 7. Southern Cali         142.5 8. Univ of Georgia         141
 9. Missouri            135.5 10. Louisville           102.5
Recall that after Pac-12s, coach Knapp stated that the goal for NCAAs was 5th place, or maybe 4th. In the glow of winning Pac-12's, I thought that was reasonable. However, after reviewing the seeding at NCAAs, it was clear that while Stanford had a lot of qualifiers, it was not likely that they would have many high scoring swims. They have a lot of very good swimmers (good enough to qualify for the championships, which is quite difficult) but not enough to score a lot of points once there. I concluded that 4th or 5th was far too ambitious.
Fast forward to midway through the final day. (As I write, prelims have been completed, apart from platform diving and the 1650). Stanford has been swimming fantastic today. Exceeding expectations. The guys are undoubtedly fried from going all out for 3 1/2 days, but are gutsing it out. Sam Perry, in particular, has been amazing in the 100, which he swam in the individual event and to lead off the 4 X 100 relay. And through a combination of eking out small points in the individual events, and unexpectedly qualifying relays for the A final, Stanford finds themselves in the position of having a chance to get as high as 4th, after all. To happen, they likely need all of the following three outcomes:
1) They must exceed their seeds in the consolation finals of the 200 back and 200 fly. In the former, they have the 15th and 16th overall qualifiers. If they don't move up, that's 3 total points. If they do, they could score as many as 16 (if they finish in the top two of the consolation finals, which is 9th and 10th overall). A goal of 10 points from that race is optimistic, but not impossible. In the 200 fly, they have the 14th and 15th seeded swimmers. Good for 5 points as it stands, but there are additional points for the taking.
[Contrast to Georgia, which has 3 A finalists (i.e. 1-8) in the 200 fly. Interestingly, Georgia has the 17th place qualifier in the 200 back and 200 breast -- just out of the money. Oh, and thus far, Stanford has had three A finalists in the entire meet.]
2) Stanford must do well in the 1650. They have 3 potential scorers, and if all breaks right, perhaps 2 might make the A final. However, our best swimmer in that event, True Sweetster, crashed and burned in the final of the 500 free two days ago. In the prelims he was 4:13 or so, and went 4:20 in the finals. I hope that he just depleted himself in the prelims and has recharged by now, and that nothing else happened, such as injury or illness.
3) Stanford needs a propitious outcome in platform diving. Indiana has been making a living on diving (probably about a third to their points). Stanford has a couple of divers who might score. Those points are needed, along with a little schadenfreude re Indiana (sorry).
Swimswam.com usually calculates the projected outcome shortly before the finals. I don't have time to do a more detailed quantitative analysis, but the actual numbers will only confirm the qualitative assessment provided here. A 4th place finish would represent a tremendous accomplishment relative to reasonable expectations. Given the total team effort from Stanford, as reflected in numerous scoring from consolation finals and relays, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the outcome, I'm as excited for tonight as I would be if Stanford were competing to win the event.
The finals start at 3:00 Pacific, streamed on ESPN.
Through day 3 of 4, culminating last night, here are the standings:
Men - Team Rankings - Through Event 14Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
 1. Texas             391.5 2. California            253
 3. Florida            224.5 4. NC State             196
 5. Indiana            189.5 6. Stanford             160
 7. Southern Cali         142.5 8. Univ of Georgia         141
 9. Missouri            135.5 10. Louisville           102.5
Recall that after Pac-12s, coach Knapp stated that the goal for NCAAs was 5th place, or maybe 4th. In the glow of winning Pac-12's, I thought that was reasonable. However, after reviewing the seeding at NCAAs, it was clear that while Stanford had a lot of qualifiers, it was not likely that they would have many high scoring swims. They have a lot of very good swimmers (good enough to qualify for the championships, which is quite difficult) but not enough to score a lot of points once there. I concluded that 4th or 5th was far too ambitious.
Fast forward to midway through the final day. (As I write, prelims have been completed, apart from platform diving and the 1650). Stanford has been swimming fantastic today. Exceeding expectations. The guys are undoubtedly fried from going all out for 3 1/2 days, but are gutsing it out. Sam Perry, in particular, has been amazing in the 100, which he swam in the individual event and to lead off the 4 X 100 relay. And through a combination of eking out small points in the individual events, and unexpectedly qualifying relays for the A final, Stanford finds themselves in the position of having a chance to get as high as 4th, after all. To happen, they likely need all of the following three outcomes:
1) They must exceed their seeds in the consolation finals of the 200 back and 200 fly. In the former, they have the 15th and 16th overall qualifiers. If they don't move up, that's 3 total points. If they do, they could score as many as 16 (if they finish in the top two of the consolation finals, which is 9th and 10th overall). A goal of 10 points from that race is optimistic, but not impossible. In the 200 fly, they have the 14th and 15th seeded swimmers. Good for 5 points as it stands, but there are additional points for the taking.
[Contrast to Georgia, which has 3 A finalists (i.e. 1-8) in the 200 fly. Interestingly, Georgia has the 17th place qualifier in the 200 back and 200 breast -- just out of the money. Oh, and thus far, Stanford has had three A finalists in the entire meet.]
2) Stanford must do well in the 1650. They have 3 potential scorers, and if all breaks right, perhaps 2 might make the A final. However, our best swimmer in that event, True Sweetster, crashed and burned in the final of the 500 free two days ago. In the prelims he was 4:13 or so, and went 4:20 in the finals. I hope that he just depleted himself in the prelims and has recharged by now, and that nothing else happened, such as injury or illness.
3) Stanford needs a propitious outcome in platform diving. Indiana has been making a living on diving (probably about a third to their points). Stanford has a couple of divers who might score. Those points are needed, along with a little schadenfreude re Indiana (sorry).
Swimswam.com usually calculates the projected outcome shortly before the finals. I don't have time to do a more detailed quantitative analysis, but the actual numbers will only confirm the qualitative assessment provided here. A 4th place finish would represent a tremendous accomplishment relative to reasonable expectations. Given the total team effort from Stanford, as reflected in numerous scoring from consolation finals and relays, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the outcome, I'm as excited for tonight as I would be if Stanford were competing to win the event.
The finals start at 3:00 Pacific, streamed on ESPN.