[Farm93]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=16912.msg193435#msg193435 date=1495239570]
FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)
[/quote]
Not only that but Miami, the third team in the group, is also sitting just one stroke out of third.  #1, #2 and one stroke out of third all from the same group???!!!  A group without a single team ranked in the NCAA top 10? Hmmmm...

Statistics are fine, but easier to check out weather.com in this case.  As Stanford played the first 6 holes the strongest rain of the day, and the last heavy rain, pushed across the course.  Then as these three schools hit the course, that rain cell of yellow and orange on radar had moved away. 

BTW if I am a coach, I would have wanted to be in that last block of teams.  I actually hoped the morning groups would keep struggling as weather.com had a forecast for a rain-free late afternoon (~4PM local time).  And in tournament level golf there is often a benefit to playing right after rain as hard greens are softer and easier to attack.

Stroke play is not the end of the deal here, so even if these two schools maintained most of this statistically lucky lead over the next three days it would not matter too much.

Oddly, it may help Stanford.  I might be easier to battle Kent State and their weather assisted stroke plan result than Alabama or some of the other top 10 team that got drenched in the rain and didn't rally up to finish strong, like Stanford.

FWIW - It will be interesting to see how all of the teams respond to a mentally tough day.  Most of the teams could still make the final 8 with a few good days.  It will probably make the next few days more entertaining as great teams try to make up ground.

[Farm93]

[quote author=Spiny_Norman link=topic=16912.msg193435#msg193435 date=1495239570]
FM, the conditions for Kent State and Northwestern (the top 2 teams) are the same as for Stanford.  They are just playing much better than any other teams today.

At least statistically that is certainly possible but unlikely. Two teams are 10+ strokes ahead of the field of 24, and both teams are in the same group of three (out of 8). The odds of two leaders being in the same group are only 1 in 8, but the odds of two runaway leaders being in the same group are less than that. Best explanation is that they had more favorable playing conditions for the holes they are playing than the other groups. (weather is the same all over the course, but affects the holes differently)
[/quote]
Not only that but Miami, the third team in the group, is also sitting just one stroke out of third.  #1, #2 and one stroke out of third all from the same group???!!!  A group without a single team ranked in the NCAA top 10? Hmmmm...

Statistics are fine, but easier to check out weather.com in this case.  As Stanford played the first 6 holes the strongest rain of the day, and the last heavy rain, pushed across the course.  Then as these three schools hit the course, that rain cell of yellow and orange on radar had moved away. 

BTW if I am a coach, I would have wanted to be in that last block of teams.  I actually hoped the morning groups would keep struggling as weather.com had a forecast for a rain-free late afternoon (~4PM local time).  And in tournament level golf there is often a benefit to playing right after rain as hard greens are softer and easier to attack.

Stroke play is not the end of the deal here, so even if these two schools maintained most of this statistically lucky lead over the next three days it would not matter too much.

Oddly, it may help Stanford.  I might be easier to battle Kent State and their weather assisted stroke plan result than Alabama or some of the other top 10 team that got drenched in the rain and didn't rally up to finish strong, like Stanford.

FWIW - It will be interesting to see how all of the teams respond to a mentally tough day.  Most of the teams could still make the final 8 with a few good days.  It will probably make the next few days more entertaining as great teams try to make up ground.