[BostonCard]

Wow, he's got us at a 37% chance to beat U$C and 57% chance to beat UW (64% vs. south bend).  Every other game is a 70%+ chance to win.  He's bullish, I guess, though I always feel bullish against U$C early in the season.  I don't know if I feel 57% good against UW, but it's possible.  The hype begins... ;)

This seems like an unrealistically precise number.  37% versus 35% versus 40%.  I think in these cases, the uncertainty associated with any model makes these models little better than a subjective evaluation; thus I might suggest bucketing these into a few subjective categories: “very likely” (95+%), “likely” (80 - 95%), “somewhat likely” (60 - 80%), “as likely as not” (40 - 60%),“somwhat unlikely” (20 - 40%), “unlikely” (5 - 20%) and “very unlikely” (< 5%)

Thus, I think calling a win against USC as "somewhat unlikley" and beating UW "as likely as not", and beating to UND to be "somewhat likely", with every one else in the somewhat likely or likely categories makes more sense than to give them hard probabilities.

BC

[BostonCard]

Wow, he's got us at a 37% chance to beat U$C and 57% chance to beat UW (64% vs. south bend).  Every other game is a 70%+ chance to win.  He's bullish, I guess, though I always feel bullish against U$C early in the season.  I don't know if I feel 57% good against UW, but it's possible.  The hype begins... ;)

This seems like an unrealistically precise number.  37% versus 35% versus 40%.  I think in these cases, the uncertainty associated with any model makes these models little better than a subjective evaluation; thus I might suggest bucketing these into a few subjective categories: “very likely” (95+%), “likely” (80 - 95%), “somewhat likely” (60 - 80%), “as likely as not” (40 - 60%),“somwhat unlikely” (20 - 40%), “unlikely” (5 - 20%) and “very unlikely” (< 5%)

Thus, I think calling a win against USC as "somewhat unlikley" and beating UW "as likely as not", and beating to UND to be "somewhat likely", with every one else in the somewhat likely or likely categories makes more sense than to give them hard probabilities.

BC