09-24-2017, 09:51 AM
True, we should have called a time out rather than take a penalty. That's poor awareness regardless and a mistake we seem to make too often.
In any case the comparison isn't just FG odds vs. odds of first down, but also factoring in the subsequent odds that we would turn a first down into a better outcome than a FG as well as considering the downside of each if we don't succeed. That's part of why I didn't like the call to kick a FG last week: if we had succeeded, it was fairly likely that we would get a touchdown. If we failed, we had SDSU pinned deep in their territory. But he didn't feel like we were going to succeed last week and of course we'll never know who was right.
In any case, the pleasant surprise for me was that these alternatives trumped punting and playing for field position. And it's much easier to say that now in hindsight since we both converted 4th and 6 and also won the game.
In any case the comparison isn't just FG odds vs. odds of first down, but also factoring in the subsequent odds that we would turn a first down into a better outcome than a FG as well as considering the downside of each if we don't succeed. That's part of why I didn't like the call to kick a FG last week: if we had succeeded, it was fairly likely that we would get a touchdown. If we failed, we had SDSU pinned deep in their territory. But he didn't feel like we were going to succeed last week and of course we'll never know who was right.
In any case, the pleasant surprise for me was that these alternatives trumped punting and playing for field position. And it's much easier to say that now in hindsight since we both converted 4th and 6 and also won the game.