[DC 86]

In any case the comparison isn't just FG odds vs. odds of first down, but also factoring in the subsequent odds that we would turn a first down into a better outcome than a FG as well as considering the downside of each if we don't succeed. That's part of why I didn't like the call to kick a FG last week: if we had succeeded, it was fairly likely that we would get a touchdown. If we failed, we had SDSU pinned deep in their territory. But he didn't feel like we were going to succeed last week and of course we'll never know who was right.

Exactly. If you build a probability tree the logic of Shaw's decisions become defensible, because of field position. In either case if you make a first down the most probable outcome is still a FG attempt, so initially attempting the FG makes sense, but once the FG becomes a 55 yard attempt there is value in getting back in range which apparently outweighed the value of punting. In both cases Toner's reliability inside of 50 yards is a key assumption. As an aside, Toner's performance as Ukropina's replacement has been great.

[DC 86]

In any case the comparison isn't just FG odds vs. odds of first down, but also factoring in the subsequent odds that we would turn a first down into a better outcome than a FG as well as considering the downside of each if we don't succeed. That's part of why I didn't like the call to kick a FG last week: if we had succeeded, it was fairly likely that we would get a touchdown. If we failed, we had SDSU pinned deep in their territory. But he didn't feel like we were going to succeed last week and of course we'll never know who was right.

Exactly. If you build a probability tree the logic of Shaw's decisions become defensible, because of field position. In either case if you make a first down the most probable outcome is still a FG attempt, so initially attempting the FG makes sense, but once the FG becomes a 55 yard attempt there is value in getting back in range which apparently outweighed the value of punting. In both cases Toner's reliability inside of 50 yards is a key assumption. As an aside, Toner's performance as Ukropina's replacement has been great.