[BostonCard]

Fourth and 10 from your own 45 is a definite punt based on the diagram.  Going for it on fourth and 1 is based on the high conversion percentage for those plays and the relative value of possession versus field position.  That being said, in most game situations few  head coaches would go for it on fourth down from within their own 40, probability be damned.

I would consider it, though, if I were the underdog in the game and wanted to maximize the chance of an upset (at the cost of a blowout loss).

BC

[BostonCard]

Fourth and 10 from your own 45 is a definite punt based on the diagram.  Going for it on fourth and 1 is based on the high conversion percentage for those plays and the relative value of possession versus field position.  That being said, in most game situations few  head coaches would go for it on fourth down from within their own 40, probability be damned.

I would consider it, though, if I were the underdog in the game and wanted to maximize the chance of an upset (at the cost of a blowout loss).

BC