09-24-2017, 08:36 PM
(09-24-2017, 07:59 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=17482.msg202552#msg202552 date=1506275730]4th and 1, should probably go for it in that field position, but Shaw never does that.???? We might not do it as much as I'd like, but we definitely do it. We've already gone for it on 4th 3 times this year, we did it 12 times last year, 16 in 2015, 10 in 2014, etc. I can't narrow it to down/distance easily, but since that situation is really the one where you most obviously go for it, you'd expect most of them to be something like that (plus I can remember doing it a bunch, especially in 2015). I'm really surprised you'd say that given how trivially false it is...
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Yeah "never" probably wasn't the best term, but from my recollection, I don't remember many 4th and 1 attempts from that area.
In terms of 4th downs in general, California is 10 of 13 for 4th so far, Arizona 9 for 11, Arizona State 4 for 8, UCLA 4 of 6, Utah and Wazzu 3 of 5, USC 0 for 5, Oregon 1 for 5, Washington 1 for 2, Colorado 1 for 3, Oregon State 2 for 4. We are 1 for 3.
Didn't look up previous years because the ESPN stats site doesn't seem to want to navigate there on my phone, but clearly Shaw is on the conservative end of the Pac 12 thus far this season, and I'd wager 12, 16, and 10 for a season in previous years is on the lower end of the conference as well, though if someone can find them that would be nice.
Kicker quality is an x factor here as well. If we think Toner is a great kicker, maybe sending him out for a 50 yarder makes sense. If Shaw doesn't have much confidence, maybe more prone to go for it. But again, if he's that good, then kicking it from 55 would seem comparatively easier than getting 6 yards.
The whole thing seemed to me to smack of emotion trumping (Shaw) reason, something very out of character.
