09-25-2017, 08:44 AM
(09-24-2017, 08:36 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Yeah "never" probably wasn't the best term, but from my recollection, I don't remember many 4th and 1 attempts from that area.
In terms of 4th downs in general, California is 10 of 13 for 4th so far, Arizona 9 for 11, Arizona State 4 for 8, UCLA 4 of 6, Utah and Wazzu 3 of 5, U$C 0 for 5, Oregon 1 for 5, Washington 1 for 2, Colorado 1 for 3, Oregon State 2 for 4. We are 1 for 3.
Didn't look up previous years because the ESPN stats site doesn't seem to want to navigate there on my phone, but clearly Shaw is on the conservative end of the Pac 12 thus far this season, and I'd wager 12, 16, and 10 for a season in previous years is on the lower end of the conference as well, though if someone can find them that would be nice.
Kicker quality is an x factor here as well. If we think Toner is a great kicker, maybe sending him out for a 50 yarder makes sense. If Shaw doesn't have much confidence, maybe more prone to go for it. But again, if he's that good, then kicking it from 55 would seem comparatively easier than getting 6 yards.
The whole thing seemed to me to smack of emotion trumping (Shaw) reason, something very out of character.
I think Shaw's decisions about going for it are on the conservative end of CFB, but around the median for football generally (the NFL is soooo bad). That said, my general impression is that he's significantly more aggressive when we have a really good offense and/or a bad defense. Of the ones I listed 2015 was the highest, 2014 the lowest, and '16 in the middle. I think that makes some sense.
