This touches upon a number of trends happening in tandem. As to getting odds for football becoming a niche sport, it depends what a niche sport means, but I tend to agree with the observation that this will happen, and would feel comfortable giving 50-50 odds, depending on how a wager was framed.
First, broadly, participation in all organized youth sports is going down in general (as a % of US youth participating, and the # sports/youth), and this trend has been happening for a while. Before the iPad and before the recent concussion coverage, though these contribute. Not surprisingly, youth obesity and diabetes are also up. Way up.
Some sports might be up. Losses in some sports, like tackle football, might be partially offset by gains in other areas, like touch football, but overall, the % of American youth participating in Little League+Pop Warner+AYSO has been dropping, on average, I want to say, for about 20 years.
Another trend is that football participation in particular has dropped more than many other sports, and I think much of that can be attributed to the concussion issue.
Another trend is that, while the nfl perhaps had its peak revenue last year, there is a troubling trend of an ageing demographic. More older people may be watching more football, but fewer young people (as a %) are watching than in previous generations.
The losses in younger viewers, I think, is due to lower participation rates in their youth, a generational shift in tastes (like how opera will largely disappear), and the shift toward non-live, streaming entertainertainment (like Netflix).
Another contributory factor, IMO, is the specialization and early focus on sports (the Tiger sports parents, both like Tiger parents, but in sports, and possibly inspired by Earl and Tiger Woods). Fewer kids will participate in casual soccer in school and in AYSO in grades 2-8 when there is a small handful of kids who dominate, who have been playing Travel Teams and getting private coaching since Kindergarten.
So put all together, based on current trends, will a much smaller percentage of Americans watch live pro and college football in 20 years? If, say, 15M Americans (close to 5% of the population) watch the most-viewed NFL game on a typical week this year, would I give 50-50 odds that less than 3.7% of the population will be watching the most-watched game live in 20 years (a 25% drop). Considering nfl viewership has dropped I think over 10% during the last two years (the trend started before all this kneeling stuff), predicting a further 25% drop may be understating things grossly (and, btw, Nascar viewership is also similarly down, and the ageing of the baseball mlb viewership has been widely reported).
So yes, I think Boston Cards prediction will likely prove true.
If people are interested, I can provide links to background sources.
First, broadly, participation in all organized youth sports is going down in general (as a % of US youth participating, and the # sports/youth), and this trend has been happening for a while. Before the iPad and before the recent concussion coverage, though these contribute. Not surprisingly, youth obesity and diabetes are also up. Way up.
Some sports might be up. Losses in some sports, like tackle football, might be partially offset by gains in other areas, like touch football, but overall, the % of American youth participating in Little League+Pop Warner+AYSO has been dropping, on average, I want to say, for about 20 years.
Another trend is that football participation in particular has dropped more than many other sports, and I think much of that can be attributed to the concussion issue.
Another trend is that, while the nfl perhaps had its peak revenue last year, there is a troubling trend of an ageing demographic. More older people may be watching more football, but fewer young people (as a %) are watching than in previous generations.
The losses in younger viewers, I think, is due to lower participation rates in their youth, a generational shift in tastes (like how opera will largely disappear), and the shift toward non-live, streaming entertainertainment (like Netflix).
Another contributory factor, IMO, is the specialization and early focus on sports (the Tiger sports parents, both like Tiger parents, but in sports, and possibly inspired by Earl and Tiger Woods). Fewer kids will participate in casual soccer in school and in AYSO in grades 2-8 when there is a small handful of kids who dominate, who have been playing Travel Teams and getting private coaching since Kindergarten.
So put all together, based on current trends, will a much smaller percentage of Americans watch live pro and college football in 20 years? If, say, 15M Americans (close to 5% of the population) watch the most-viewed NFL game on a typical week this year, would I give 50-50 odds that less than 3.7% of the population will be watching the most-watched game live in 20 years (a 25% drop). Considering nfl viewership has dropped I think over 10% during the last two years (the trend started before all this kneeling stuff), predicting a further 25% drop may be understating things grossly (and, btw, Nascar viewership is also similarly down, and the ageing of the baseball mlb viewership has been widely reported).
So yes, I think Boston Cards prediction will likely prove true.
If people are interested, I can provide links to background sources.