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I think it is pretty clear why Costello didn't play.  Shaw doesn't think Costello is that much better and didn't have confidence that Costello had a higher probability of scoring on the next drive than Chryst.  Sure Chryst was having a bad game, but he was just coming off the best game of his career and the for the first time in a month the program appeared to be stable and on an upward trajectory without a QB controversy.  Every time Shaw sent Chyrst out there, he probably assumed that he would engineer a touchdown drive and overcome his poor start on the prior drives.  If you have a choice between two guys that you think have a similar probability of leading a TD drive on the next possession, may as well stick the guy out there that won't give a QB controversy when he is successful and the guy who has actually played on the road. Shaw ending up being wrong as Chryst never pulled it together, but it isn't crazy that he thought  Chyrst had as much of a chance of being successful on the next drive as Costello. We now have a QB controversy again as much as Shaw tried to prevent one.

I disagree. It became perfectly clear rather early in the game that Chryst just didn't have "it" tonight.  Expecting a return to his overall average level of play after after multiple drives is illogical. Especially when there was no improvement after halftime, where you could argue he has a chance to pull himself together and change the narrative. If your ace starting pitcher with a 2.0 ERA is getting lit up and gives up 12 runs in the first two innings, you pull him. You don't assume that because his average performance is much better then his current performance, he will revert immediately to his average. Some nights people have a bad day/game. Not putting Costello in can only be explained if (1) there is some injury/discipline issue we don't know about or (2) Shaw is convinced that Chryst is better AND pulling him would have deleterious long-term effects on his psyche.

[gocard14]

I think it is pretty clear why Costello didn't play.  Shaw doesn't think Costello is that much better and didn't have confidence that Costello had a higher probability of scoring on the next drive than Chryst.  Sure Chryst was having a bad game, but he was just coming off the best game of his career and the for the first time in a month the program appeared to be stable and on an upward trajectory without a QB controversy.  Every time Shaw sent Chyrst out there, he probably assumed that he would engineer a touchdown drive and overcome his poor start on the prior drives.  If you have a choice between two guys that you think have a similar probability of leading a TD drive on the next possession, may as well stick the guy out there that won't give a QB controversy when he is successful and the guy who has actually played on the road. Shaw ending up being wrong as Chryst never pulled it together, but it isn't crazy that he thought  Chyrst had as much of a chance of being successful on the next drive as Costello. We now have a QB controversy again as much as Shaw tried to prevent one.

I disagree. It became perfectly clear rather early in the game that Chryst just didn't have "it" tonight.  Expecting a return to his overall average level of play after after multiple drives is illogical. Especially when there was no improvement after halftime, where you could argue he has a chance to pull himself together and change the narrative. If your ace starting pitcher with a 2.0 ERA is getting lit up and gives up 12 runs in the first two innings, you pull him. You don't assume that because his average performance is much better then his current performance, he will revert immediately to his average. Some nights people have a bad day/game. Not putting Costello in can only be explained if (1) there is some injury/discipline issue we don't know about or (2) Shaw is convinced that Chryst is better AND pulling him would have deleterious long-term effects on his psyche.