[washingtonismoney]

there is more and more public grumbling about Harbaugh in Michigan.  one of the better lines I've read is that Michigan fans are ready for him to make more news from September to January every year, rather January to September.

Right, which just shows how human beings are affected by:
a) recency bias
b) hedonistic treadmill

For convenience's sake, we'll use FPI as our catch-all team strength metric. Harbaugh's Michigan teams have gone 11th, 3rd, and 23rd. That's a way better three-year stretch than what the previous coach served up, and more-or-less what you'd expect from a well-run Michigan team. You might have a case for worry or concern if you thought the dip from 3rd to 23rd reflected some sort of interior weakness of the Harbaugh regime (could only win with Hoke's recruits, can't find a QB, I dunno, something). But of course the team was only expected to win 9 games this year by Vegas, due to the massive exodus from the previous year, and underachieving your expected win total by 1 is hardly a crime -- especially when you lose your starting QB halfway through the season due to injury!

So everything's going fine, but because Harbaugh raised expectations beyond reasonable levels -- and the most recent impression is bad -- some people are freaking out. Now, to be fair, I'd love it if Michigan's image tanked its chances with recruits it's competing for with Stanford. But, fundamentally, everything's fine in Harbaughland.

[washingtonismoney]

there is more and more public grumbling about Harbaugh in Michigan.  one of the better lines I've read is that Michigan fans are ready for him to make more news from September to January every year, rather January to September.

Right, which just shows how human beings are affected by:
a) recency bias
b) hedonistic treadmill

For convenience's sake, we'll use FPI as our catch-all team strength metric. Harbaugh's Michigan teams have gone 11th, 3rd, and 23rd. That's a way better three-year stretch than what the previous coach served up, and more-or-less what you'd expect from a well-run Michigan team. You might have a case for worry or concern if you thought the dip from 3rd to 23rd reflected some sort of interior weakness of the Harbaugh regime (could only win with Hoke's recruits, can't find a QB, I dunno, something). But of course the team was only expected to win 9 games this year by Vegas, due to the massive exodus from the previous year, and underachieving your expected win total by 1 is hardly a crime -- especially when you lose your starting QB halfway through the season due to injury!

So everything's going fine, but because Harbaugh raised expectations beyond reasonable levels -- and the most recent impression is bad -- some people are freaking out. Now, to be fair, I'd love it if Michigan's image tanked its chances with recruits it's competing for with Stanford. But, fundamentally, everything's fine in Harbaughland.