04-26-2018, 11:44 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-26-2018, 03:27 PM by ColoradoTree.)
Should Stanford get past Washington this afternoon, they'll play the winner of the Cal-WSU match going on now. But the stakes of this match are even greater. Given the number of automatic qualifying conferences that send teams to the NCAA tournament, you need to be ranked in the top 40 or so to get an at-large bid. Right now, Cal is #45, and Wazzu is #48. Just winning today might not be enough of a rankings boost to guarantee selection, but a loss for either team would be fatal to their NCAA hopes. (I mean, we're used to Cal being a top 16 seed in the NCAA tournament; the idea that they might not even make the *cut* this year is mind-boggling.) Washington, at #43, is also very much on the bubble, so if Stanford lives up to its seed in this tournament, it will likely crush two fellow conference members' NCAA hopes (though Cal has a shot if it beats WSU and loses to Stanford, depending on how other matches go).
In the Cal-WSU match a couple of weeks ago, WSU won the doubles point, but got rolled at the top 4 spots in singles to lose the match, before winning at 5 and 6 to get it to 4-3. This morning, WSU again won the doubles point, though it was much closer than it was in Pullman. In that match, Rosenqvist crushed WSU's Bayerlova, but I can't see Bayerlova taking another loss like that. I think Cal's 2 through 4 are too tough for their WSU counterparts, but Cal isn't as deep as in recent years, so if WSU again wins at 5 and 6, that marquee matchup at Court 1 will decide the match.
I don't have much of a rooting interest, as we should be moderate favorites over either team, their rankings are close enough that they'd affect Stanford's ranking equally, and I don't think we necessarily match up better against one team over the other, though there are individual matchups that would be more or less favorable for Stanford depending on the matchup. It *probably* evens out, though Cal has better *talent* and is thus more dangerous if they play up to that level. (That said, if Lord is going to qualify for the NCAA singles tournament, she needs wins over ranked players. Cal provides that, while Wazzu doesn't.)
Well, the match at Court 1 is indeed much closer than last time around, with Bayerlova falling in a first-set tiebreaker. The problem for Wazzu, however, is that they've fallen apart everywhere else, losing every other first set. Oof. Of course, maybe that just means a bunch of grueling three-setters, which I will happily take. But I'm not sure Wazzu has it in them.
Maybe grueling three-setters is exactly how this thing will go! Cal has taken a 2-1 lead behind straight-set wins at Courts 2 and 3, and Bayerlova looks spent, trailing badly in the second, but Wazzu has forced a third set at Courts 5 and 6, and is up 3-2 on serve in the second set on Court 4, so the Cougs' hopes aren't dead yet.
Of course, I say that, and then Bayerlova goes from 5-1 down in the second to win 6 straight games to win the set 7-5 (breaking Rosenqvist at love to take the set, too). Cal looked like they were in total control of this one, and they got tight. Cal is up 3-1, as their #5 turned it on in the 3rd to win that match and make the match score 3-1, and while they're still likely to pull it out, it's not as certain. On Court 1, Bayerlova is up 1-0 in the third; on Court 4, Cal is up 6-5 in the second and will serve for that match and the overall match; on Court 6, WSU is up 5-4 in the third set. Three left on court, and Wazzu needs all three.
WSU held on at Court 6 to make it 3-2 Cal. On Court 4, WSU forced a tiebreaker on Court 4 and won a long one to force a third set. There was a glimmer of hope for Cal on Court 1 as Rosenqvist breaks Bayerlova to go up 3-2, but Bayerlova broke her right back to level again at 3-3. But seriously, folks. At one point, Cal was up 3-1 in the match, and a fourth point looked likely to come from Court 1 (once up 7-6, 5-1) or Court 4 (once up 6-3, 5-3). Now there are two matches left on court, and both are coin flips. No excuses if they end up on the wrong side of a 4-3 score.
Stanford's match should have started by now, but it'll have to wait for this one to finish. Fine by me. They can play as long as they like.
Goodness, what a match this has turned out to be. Bayerlova got a timely break to go up 5-3 and serve for the match, but Rosenqvist broke right back to get on serve. On her next service game, she had a game point to tie it back up at 5-5, but Bayerlova forced and then won a deciding point to win the match. It's now 3-3, and it all comes down to Court 4, where they're knotted up at 2-2.
Well, whoever wins this thing, they will have earned it, as it'll be a third-set tiebreaker at Court 4 to decide who goes to the semis.
In the Cal-WSU match a couple of weeks ago, WSU won the doubles point, but got rolled at the top 4 spots in singles to lose the match, before winning at 5 and 6 to get it to 4-3. This morning, WSU again won the doubles point, though it was much closer than it was in Pullman. In that match, Rosenqvist crushed WSU's Bayerlova, but I can't see Bayerlova taking another loss like that. I think Cal's 2 through 4 are too tough for their WSU counterparts, but Cal isn't as deep as in recent years, so if WSU again wins at 5 and 6, that marquee matchup at Court 1 will decide the match.
I don't have much of a rooting interest, as we should be moderate favorites over either team, their rankings are close enough that they'd affect Stanford's ranking equally, and I don't think we necessarily match up better against one team over the other, though there are individual matchups that would be more or less favorable for Stanford depending on the matchup. It *probably* evens out, though Cal has better *talent* and is thus more dangerous if they play up to that level. (That said, if Lord is going to qualify for the NCAA singles tournament, she needs wins over ranked players. Cal provides that, while Wazzu doesn't.)
Well, the match at Court 1 is indeed much closer than last time around, with Bayerlova falling in a first-set tiebreaker. The problem for Wazzu, however, is that they've fallen apart everywhere else, losing every other first set. Oof. Of course, maybe that just means a bunch of grueling three-setters, which I will happily take. But I'm not sure Wazzu has it in them.
Maybe grueling three-setters is exactly how this thing will go! Cal has taken a 2-1 lead behind straight-set wins at Courts 2 and 3, and Bayerlova looks spent, trailing badly in the second, but Wazzu has forced a third set at Courts 5 and 6, and is up 3-2 on serve in the second set on Court 4, so the Cougs' hopes aren't dead yet.
Of course, I say that, and then Bayerlova goes from 5-1 down in the second to win 6 straight games to win the set 7-5 (breaking Rosenqvist at love to take the set, too). Cal looked like they were in total control of this one, and they got tight. Cal is up 3-1, as their #5 turned it on in the 3rd to win that match and make the match score 3-1, and while they're still likely to pull it out, it's not as certain. On Court 1, Bayerlova is up 1-0 in the third; on Court 4, Cal is up 6-5 in the second and will serve for that match and the overall match; on Court 6, WSU is up 5-4 in the third set. Three left on court, and Wazzu needs all three.
WSU held on at Court 6 to make it 3-2 Cal. On Court 4, WSU forced a tiebreaker on Court 4 and won a long one to force a third set. There was a glimmer of hope for Cal on Court 1 as Rosenqvist breaks Bayerlova to go up 3-2, but Bayerlova broke her right back to level again at 3-3. But seriously, folks. At one point, Cal was up 3-1 in the match, and a fourth point looked likely to come from Court 1 (once up 7-6, 5-1) or Court 4 (once up 6-3, 5-3). Now there are two matches left on court, and both are coin flips. No excuses if they end up on the wrong side of a 4-3 score.
Stanford's match should have started by now, but it'll have to wait for this one to finish. Fine by me. They can play as long as they like.
Goodness, what a match this has turned out to be. Bayerlova got a timely break to go up 5-3 and serve for the match, but Rosenqvist broke right back to get on serve. On her next service game, she had a game point to tie it back up at 5-5, but Bayerlova forced and then won a deciding point to win the match. It's now 3-3, and it all comes down to Court 4, where they're knotted up at 2-2.
Well, whoever wins this thing, they will have earned it, as it'll be a third-set tiebreaker at Court 4 to decide who goes to the semis.