05-08-2018, 09:01 PM
(05-08-2018, 04:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(05-07-2018, 08:06 PM)d4cohn Wrote: I would compare the pitching stats during the Hanson era, to the first year this year under Allister. In my eyes, Coach Allister and Nyberg are miracle workers. As Bob said, our best offensive and defensive player (and most valuable player overall) only has 1 at-bat in all of Pac-12 play due to injury. Our freshman ace has been banged up for most of Pac-12 play. Our second top pitcher (a sophomore) was lost early in Pac-12 play for the year. Our starting CF has also been banged up for most of Pac-12 play, and the player that has to start in her place is hitting around .115. And we still have lost a lot of close games, including 2 one-run games this weekend. We have been pretty unlucky to not pick up a few more wins in conference. Sure, even winning a couple of more close games was not going to be enough to make the NCAA tournament, but this team is much improved from last year. And respectfully, our current senior and junior classes' development was really hampered by the previous staff.
We've scored an average of 1.6 runs in conference, and given up an average of 6. I don't know how well the Bill James pythagorean theorm applies to softball, but it would predict a winning percentage of 0.080; or 1.7 wins versus 19.3 losses. In other words, our record reflects our run differential pretty well (if anything, we've been a touch lucky to have the runs scored against us come in a handful of blowouts, which left the remaining games a bit closer than they would have been in a typical distribution of runs).
And my recollection is that the previous coaching regime also had to deal with injury issues, but I don't follow this as closely as you guys do.
I'm still sanguine about the coach Allister because of the sheer depths from which this team has had to emerge; it would not have been reasonable to expect this team to be much further along than it is currently. However, I am struggling a bit to see evidence that she is a miracle worker.
BC
With respect to this year's team, last year's team was far more talented on offense, particularly due to last year's senior class, which featured Kylie Sorenson, Bessie Noll and Lauren Bertoy, who were members of the nation's #1 recruiting class, and developed during their freshman year under Coach Rittman. To my recollection, our three seniors were relatively healthy last year. Alyssa H has missed most of both Pac-12 seasons. Montana was not injured for all of Pac-12 play like she was this year. While last year's team did not have Maddy, I have no doubts that Coach Allister, particularly since Carolyn and Nikki have had to do most of the pitching anyway in Pac-12 play due to the injuries to Kiana and Maddy, would have gotten last year's team into the NCAA tournament.
Also, regarding our blowout losses, we have often had to leave pitchers in because we have been down to 2 pitchers for much of Pac-12 play. As such, if we had our full depth, I don't think the blowout losses would have been as one-sided.
