05-15-2018, 12:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2018, 12:07 PM by ColoradoTree.)
A matchup worthy of a final in the Round of 16, between a 15th-seeded Stanford team and the top-ranked but 2nd-seeded team in the country? Where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah, 2016, when we beat Florida in the Round of 16 on the way to a national championship. Let's do it again, shall we? This time, it's North Carolina as the 2 seed standing in our way. The match is Thursday at 9:00 a.m. Pacific/Noon Eastern.
Didn't we play them last year?
Indeed. Last year, UNC was also the #2 seed and we were #7, and we met in the quarterfinals. We won the doubles point behind a 6-1 win from Arbuthnott/Davidson at #1 (over the 4th-ranked duo in the country) and a 6-1 win from Doyle/Lord at #2 (Higuchi/Lampl were getting smoked at #3 when the doubles point was clinched). In singles, we lost at #1 (Doyle to Carter, neither of whom is still around, so leave that aside), then Davidson beat Aney at #3 to put Stanford up 2-1, Lord stretched the lead to 3-1 by beating Daavettila at #2 (it went three sets, but Lord ran away with it in the third), Lampl lost a heartbreaker at #4 to Graham (7-5 in the third, in a match where Lampl had been up a break in the third) to make it 3-2, and then Arbuthnott clinched over Makenna Jones, winning 6-2 in her third set. Surprisingly, Higuchi lost her first set to Ouellet-Pizer in a tiebreaker, but then turned on the jets, winning the second set 6-2 right before the match was abandoned. (She started late because the match was played indoors due to weather, and there were limited courts.)
UNC's lineup is much-changed, however. Makenna Jones has jumped from #5 last year to #1 now (climbing the lineup gradually throughout this season), Daavettila plays #3, freshman Alle Sanford plays #2, and Aney now plays #5. Graham and Ouellet-Pizer still play at 4 and 6, respectively, so only Higuchi will have a rematch from last year.
So how good are they?
Super good. The #1 team in the country according to the ITA, the #2 team according to the USTA, the ITA Indoors national champions from earlier this season, and ACC tournament champions. They have the #2 seed because of a head to head loss to Vanderbilt, but like Stanford, all three of their losses have come to excellent teams: Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Duke. Their resume is unquestionably better. That said, as noted in an earlier thread, Stanford might actually be more talented. Stanford has higher UTRs at 4 of 6 singles positions (1, 2, 5, and 6--the biggest advantages are Lord at 2 and Higuchi at 6) and trails so narrowly at #3 and #4 that those matches are essentially coin flips.
It's an absolute shame this match happens so early in the tournament. But such is life. We can blame the NCAA for not seeding Stanford higher, but ultimately, everyone knows the criteria for the ITA rankings, and everyone knows those rankings largely determine the seeds. If we played ITA Kick-Off Weekend and then National Indoors, we'd usually be ranked and seeded better.
Lineups
Note: these are the lineups UNC has used in the NCAA tournament so far, so they're probably good, but UNC has done a lot of shuffling this year, mixing and matching doubles partners and moving singles players up and down the lineup
Singles
1. #15 Gordon vs. #2 Makenna Jones
2. #40 Lord vs. #26 Alle Sanford
3. #93 Lampl vs. #46 Sara Daavettila
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. #95 Alexa Graham
5. #96 Shin vs. #85 Jessie Aney
6. #102 Higuchi vs. #119 Chloe Ouellet-Pizer
Doubles
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (8-4 in duals) vs. #2 Aney/Graham (18-6)
2. #84 Lampl/Yee (15-2) vs. #33 Daavettila/Sanford (13-7)
3. Lord/Shin (11-1) vs. Jones/Akkerman (14-3)
Going by the ITA rankings, we'd be favored in just two singles matches, Courts 4 and 6. But by UTR, we're favored at 1, 2, 5, and 6, and we trail narrowly at 3 and 4.
In the matches this year where UNC has struggled, the most common reasons why are: (1) losing the doubles point; (2) Jessie Aney losing at 4 or 5; and (3) Alle Sanford losing at 1 or 2. We know Aney will play 5 and Sanford will play 2, so that bodes well for Lord and Shin, respectively. So, there's your path: get the doubles point and singles wins on Courts 2, 5, and 6. (FYI, in those closer matches--both wins and losses--Jones was 9-2, Sanford was 3-9, Daavettila was 10-3, Graham was 11-2, Aney was 5-7, and Ouellet-Pizer was 7-5.)
Predictions
I think Stanford wins a very, very close one, 4-3. Lots of ways to get there, but I think it happens through Stanford getting the doubles point behind wins at #2 and #3, and then getting singles wins from Lord, Shin, and Higuchi. But your guess is as good as where a 4th point comes from in singles if we need it--Gordon is a slight favorite, but Jones has excelled in close matches against good opponents this year. I'm not going to bet against Arbuthnott and Lampl, either, but their opponents have been similarly good when it counts. The only thing I'm really confident about, though, is that it'll be close.
How can we follow along?
Live stats are available here: http://statbroadcast.com/events/central.php?tid=778
And you can access video of each court here: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/
Here's the Stanford preview of the matchup: http://gostanford.com/news/2018/5/15/wom...-test.aspx
As for common opponents, there are just two: Michigan and Vanderbilt. Both teams beat Michigan with relative ease (Stanford won 4-0; UNC won 4-1), and both lost to Vanderbilt, though UNC's 4-3 loss was in Chapel Hill and Stanford's 7-0 loss (without Lord, it must be noted) was in Nashville.
Not too many useful individual comparisons, either. This past fall in tournament play, Arbuthnott lost to Jones in three sets, and Arbuthnott/Gordon beat Daavettila/Sanford 11-9 in a match tiebreaker (when you split the first two sets in some formats, you play a super tiebreaker to determine the winner-- the first to ten points wins, and you have to win by two), but those are the only Stanford-UNC results this year.
Given the recent discussion of UTR, even though Stanford has the highest UTR total from its six players, I was interested in how we stack up against other top teams as those lineups will actually be rolled out. Here's how we look:
* 6-0 over Georgia Tech
* 6-0 over UCLA
* 5-1 over South Carolina (Shin behind)
* 4-2 over Vanderbilt (Gordon and Lord behind)
* 4-1-1 over Georgia (Lord tied; Higuchi behind; but it's close)
* 3-3 vs. Texas (Gordon, Lord, and Lampl behind)
* 3-3 vs. Duke (Lampl, Arbuthnott, and Shin behind)
* 2-4 vs. Pepperdine (only Gordon and Higuchi ahead)
Didn't we play them last year?
Indeed. Last year, UNC was also the #2 seed and we were #7, and we met in the quarterfinals. We won the doubles point behind a 6-1 win from Arbuthnott/Davidson at #1 (over the 4th-ranked duo in the country) and a 6-1 win from Doyle/Lord at #2 (Higuchi/Lampl were getting smoked at #3 when the doubles point was clinched). In singles, we lost at #1 (Doyle to Carter, neither of whom is still around, so leave that aside), then Davidson beat Aney at #3 to put Stanford up 2-1, Lord stretched the lead to 3-1 by beating Daavettila at #2 (it went three sets, but Lord ran away with it in the third), Lampl lost a heartbreaker at #4 to Graham (7-5 in the third, in a match where Lampl had been up a break in the third) to make it 3-2, and then Arbuthnott clinched over Makenna Jones, winning 6-2 in her third set. Surprisingly, Higuchi lost her first set to Ouellet-Pizer in a tiebreaker, but then turned on the jets, winning the second set 6-2 right before the match was abandoned. (She started late because the match was played indoors due to weather, and there were limited courts.)
UNC's lineup is much-changed, however. Makenna Jones has jumped from #5 last year to #1 now (climbing the lineup gradually throughout this season), Daavettila plays #3, freshman Alle Sanford plays #2, and Aney now plays #5. Graham and Ouellet-Pizer still play at 4 and 6, respectively, so only Higuchi will have a rematch from last year.
So how good are they?
Super good. The #1 team in the country according to the ITA, the #2 team according to the USTA, the ITA Indoors national champions from earlier this season, and ACC tournament champions. They have the #2 seed because of a head to head loss to Vanderbilt, but like Stanford, all three of their losses have come to excellent teams: Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Duke. Their resume is unquestionably better. That said, as noted in an earlier thread, Stanford might actually be more talented. Stanford has higher UTRs at 4 of 6 singles positions (1, 2, 5, and 6--the biggest advantages are Lord at 2 and Higuchi at 6) and trails so narrowly at #3 and #4 that those matches are essentially coin flips.
It's an absolute shame this match happens so early in the tournament. But such is life. We can blame the NCAA for not seeding Stanford higher, but ultimately, everyone knows the criteria for the ITA rankings, and everyone knows those rankings largely determine the seeds. If we played ITA Kick-Off Weekend and then National Indoors, we'd usually be ranked and seeded better.
Lineups
Note: these are the lineups UNC has used in the NCAA tournament so far, so they're probably good, but UNC has done a lot of shuffling this year, mixing and matching doubles partners and moving singles players up and down the lineup
Singles
1. #15 Gordon vs. #2 Makenna Jones
2. #40 Lord vs. #26 Alle Sanford
3. #93 Lampl vs. #46 Sara Daavettila
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. #95 Alexa Graham
5. #96 Shin vs. #85 Jessie Aney
6. #102 Higuchi vs. #119 Chloe Ouellet-Pizer
Doubles
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (8-4 in duals) vs. #2 Aney/Graham (18-6)
2. #84 Lampl/Yee (15-2) vs. #33 Daavettila/Sanford (13-7)
3. Lord/Shin (11-1) vs. Jones/Akkerman (14-3)
Going by the ITA rankings, we'd be favored in just two singles matches, Courts 4 and 6. But by UTR, we're favored at 1, 2, 5, and 6, and we trail narrowly at 3 and 4.
In the matches this year where UNC has struggled, the most common reasons why are: (1) losing the doubles point; (2) Jessie Aney losing at 4 or 5; and (3) Alle Sanford losing at 1 or 2. We know Aney will play 5 and Sanford will play 2, so that bodes well for Lord and Shin, respectively. So, there's your path: get the doubles point and singles wins on Courts 2, 5, and 6. (FYI, in those closer matches--both wins and losses--Jones was 9-2, Sanford was 3-9, Daavettila was 10-3, Graham was 11-2, Aney was 5-7, and Ouellet-Pizer was 7-5.)
Predictions
I think Stanford wins a very, very close one, 4-3. Lots of ways to get there, but I think it happens through Stanford getting the doubles point behind wins at #2 and #3, and then getting singles wins from Lord, Shin, and Higuchi. But your guess is as good as where a 4th point comes from in singles if we need it--Gordon is a slight favorite, but Jones has excelled in close matches against good opponents this year. I'm not going to bet against Arbuthnott and Lampl, either, but their opponents have been similarly good when it counts. The only thing I'm really confident about, though, is that it'll be close.
How can we follow along?
Live stats are available here: http://statbroadcast.com/events/central.php?tid=778
And you can access video of each court here: http://www.wakeforestsports.com/ncaatennis/
Here's the Stanford preview of the matchup: http://gostanford.com/news/2018/5/15/wom...-test.aspx
As for common opponents, there are just two: Michigan and Vanderbilt. Both teams beat Michigan with relative ease (Stanford won 4-0; UNC won 4-1), and both lost to Vanderbilt, though UNC's 4-3 loss was in Chapel Hill and Stanford's 7-0 loss (without Lord, it must be noted) was in Nashville.
Not too many useful individual comparisons, either. This past fall in tournament play, Arbuthnott lost to Jones in three sets, and Arbuthnott/Gordon beat Daavettila/Sanford 11-9 in a match tiebreaker (when you split the first two sets in some formats, you play a super tiebreaker to determine the winner-- the first to ten points wins, and you have to win by two), but those are the only Stanford-UNC results this year.
Given the recent discussion of UTR, even though Stanford has the highest UTR total from its six players, I was interested in how we stack up against other top teams as those lineups will actually be rolled out. Here's how we look:
* 6-0 over Georgia Tech
* 6-0 over UCLA
* 5-1 over South Carolina (Shin behind)
* 4-2 over Vanderbilt (Gordon and Lord behind)
* 4-1-1 over Georgia (Lord tied; Higuchi behind; but it's close)
* 3-3 vs. Texas (Gordon, Lord, and Lampl behind)
* 3-3 vs. Duke (Lampl, Arbuthnott, and Shin behind)
* 2-4 vs. Pepperdine (only Gordon and Higuchi ahead)