[qwerty49]

The odds, lines and spreads in sports betting have ZERO predictive value and are all about nothing more than a reflection of public perception.

Not so sure about ZERO predictive value. There is such a thing as collective wisdom and I'm often shocked at how close the lines are to outcomes.

I think there are a lot of stats that support both sides of the argument.  Here's one that supports yours:  year-in and year-out, the betting favorite in a horse race wins about one-third of the time.  So yes, the collective wisdom is correct here to a certain extent.  However, one factor the smart horseplayer could consider is the actual parimutuel odds.  If those odds are less than 2-1, (e.g. 3-2 or 6-5, etc) from a purely mathematical standpoint, it wouldn't make sense to bet that horse.  (Of course lots of other factors could sway the bettor.)

OTOH what was the spread in the Greatest Upset Ever?  41, 42 points?  If one was betting on SC that day, not much predictive value there.  Of course, after the fact, that's easy to say.

[qwerty49]

The odds, lines and spreads in sports betting have ZERO predictive value and are all about nothing more than a reflection of public perception.

Not so sure about ZERO predictive value. There is such a thing as collective wisdom and I'm often shocked at how close the lines are to outcomes.

I think there are a lot of stats that support both sides of the argument.  Here's one that supports yours:  year-in and year-out, the betting favorite in a horse race wins about one-third of the time.  So yes, the collective wisdom is correct here to a certain extent.  However, one factor the smart horseplayer could consider is the actual parimutuel odds.  If those odds are less than 2-1, (e.g. 3-2 or 6-5, etc) from a purely mathematical standpoint, it wouldn't make sense to bet that horse.  (Of course lots of other factors could sway the bettor.)

OTOH what was the spread in the Greatest Upset Ever?  41, 42 points?  If one was betting on SC that day, not much predictive value there.  Of course, after the fact, that's easy to say.