[OutsiderFan]

https://247sports.com/player/salim-turne...d-46040877


86% prediction on Salim Turner-Muhammad going to us.

If we were doing a confidence pool on Stanford football commits, at this point it would be something like:

1. Josh Pakola
2. Salim Turner-Muhammad
3. Austin Jones
4. Laiatu Latu
5. Walter Rouse

This list factors in my confidence they will be admitted.

How often do we reject a prospect? Seems really ridiculous. Why not have a GPA/SAT limit and go from there? Why does it need to take so long for admissions to approve a prospect?

I know others will be able to answer your question more thoroughly, but based on what I have gathered, I'll take a stab.

First of all, given the pool of prospects is so relatively small, it's a good thing that there isn't a set scale for GPA/SAT.  First of all, not all schools grade the same way or offer the same rigor.  Second of all, the idea is to determine who is capable of handling what Stanford requires from its students.  The vetting process works (so why change it) because how often do you hear of Stanford athletes being ineligible or flunking out?  There are surely a few, but the number is so small as to be insignificant.  Sure people can come with the whole "it's impossible to flunk at Stanford" saw, but it seems the reality is it's hard to get As, but you still need to put in some effort to pass a class.

As for why admissions doesn't make decisions sooner, they can only be made when they have applications to review. While it is true some kids may be admitted prior to their Senior seasons pending their AP classes and maintaining their GPA, the reality is most applications aren't submitted until Fall before the signing period starts.  

It's obviously frustrating for Stanford fans to wait so long to see recruit commitments, but speaking for myself, I much prefer recruits delaying commitments under the auspices of admission assurance than see early commits be denied admission after committing.  Reading between the lines, I don't think David Shaw dislikes anything more about his job than an offered recruit committing and then being told he's denied admission. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Stanford coaches are encouraging recruits to hold off on commitments until they are basically certain they will be admitted.

My confidence on the above recruits is based on what has been revealed publicly about their grades/test scores, statements, and other offers.  When I see someone offered by Harvard or Princeton, like Austin Jones, that seems like a kid who likely will be admitted to Stanford. When I see Josh Pakola and Salim Turner-Muhammad tweet about receiving the SAT scores they wanted, that seems like a foreshadowing of Stanford admission.  

Frankly, Aeneas DiCosmo also seems Stanford-bound based on the interviews with his father recently, but I don't feel I have insight into his grades and test scores as the others. It may have been reported publicly, but I'm not remembering.

When in doubt about if a recruit has the chops to be admitted, just ask Bobk. He is usually never wrong about who can and can't be admitted. :)

[OutsiderFan]

https://247sports.com/player/salim-turne...d-46040877


86% prediction on Salim Turner-Muhammad going to us.

If we were doing a confidence pool on Stanford football commits, at this point it would be something like:

1. Josh Pakola
2. Salim Turner-Muhammad
3. Austin Jones
4. Laiatu Latu
5. Walter Rouse

This list factors in my confidence they will be admitted.

How often do we reject a prospect? Seems really ridiculous. Why not have a GPA/SAT limit and go from there? Why does it need to take so long for admissions to approve a prospect?

I know others will be able to answer your question more thoroughly, but based on what I have gathered, I'll take a stab.

First of all, given the pool of prospects is so relatively small, it's a good thing that there isn't a set scale for GPA/SAT.  First of all, not all schools grade the same way or offer the same rigor.  Second of all, the idea is to determine who is capable of handling what Stanford requires from its students.  The vetting process works (so why change it) because how often do you hear of Stanford athletes being ineligible or flunking out?  There are surely a few, but the number is so small as to be insignificant.  Sure people can come with the whole "it's impossible to flunk at Stanford" saw, but it seems the reality is it's hard to get As, but you still need to put in some effort to pass a class.

As for why admissions doesn't make decisions sooner, they can only be made when they have applications to review. While it is true some kids may be admitted prior to their Senior seasons pending their AP classes and maintaining their GPA, the reality is most applications aren't submitted until Fall before the signing period starts.  

It's obviously frustrating for Stanford fans to wait so long to see recruit commitments, but speaking for myself, I much prefer recruits delaying commitments under the auspices of admission assurance than see early commits be denied admission after committing.  Reading between the lines, I don't think David Shaw dislikes anything more about his job than an offered recruit committing and then being told he's denied admission. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Stanford coaches are encouraging recruits to hold off on commitments until they are basically certain they will be admitted.

My confidence on the above recruits is based on what has been revealed publicly about their grades/test scores, statements, and other offers.  When I see someone offered by Harvard or Princeton, like Austin Jones, that seems like a kid who likely will be admitted to Stanford. When I see Josh Pakola and Salim Turner-Muhammad tweet about receiving the SAT scores they wanted, that seems like a foreshadowing of Stanford admission.  

Frankly, Aeneas DiCosmo also seems Stanford-bound based on the interviews with his father recently, but I don't feel I have insight into his grades and test scores as the others. It may have been reported publicly, but I'm not remembering.

When in doubt about if a recruit has the chops to be admitted, just ask Bobk. He is usually never wrong about who can and can't be admitted. :)