We're actually here. Again. For the third year in a row, Stanford (23-3) is in the NCAA final, and incredibly, the second time in three years Stanford has done it as a 15th seed. In the preseason ITA rankings, Stanford was #1 and Vanderbilt was #2. It's been a long, winding road here (remember when we were ranked #46?), but we're the last two teams standing. The ITA had it right--these are the best two teams in college tennis. We've won 19 in a row; they've won 16 in a row. Should be a fun one.
Vanderbilt Preview
The #1 team for much of the year, Vanderbilt (27-3) rolled through the SEC as its regular season and tournament champion, suffering just three losses--to Pepperdine at ITA Indoors, at Northwestern, and at Mississippi State. No shame in losing to Pepperdine, and Northwestern at their place would be tough, but Mississippi State is a curious one. The Bulldogs aren't bad, mind you, but it's like losing to Washington in Seattle, which, come to think of it, we almost did, so never mind.
Vanderbilt is the #1 seed, the #1 team in the USTA rankings, and the #2 team in the ITA rankings, but only the #5 team by UTR Power 6 (in which we rank first). Slam.tennis pegs Vanderbilt as a 56% favorite to win, the same odds Duke had of beating us. Let's hope it plays out similarly.
Let's get this over with
So, yeah. They beat us 7-0 when we played them earlier this year. We've never lost 7-0 before, as far as I know. Now, sure, we didn't have Lord for that match, which meant that everyone had to play up a spot (I remain of the belief that if Lord had started the season healthy, she'd have been the #1, but Gordon took the spot and became the alpha as Lord worked her way back from injury). Even so, we played them close, with three of six singles matches going to a third set, and Yee on the wrong end of two tiebreakers. But 7-0 is what we do to the San Jose States of the world; nobody does that to us.
Due to lineup shuffling, there will only be two rematches from that February match: Gordon vs. Sharma (Sharma won in 3 sets) and Lampl v. Rosca (also a 3-setter).
Lineups
Here's how things will look, with UTR differential in parentheses:
1. #15 Gordon vs. #11 Astra Sharma (Gordon trails by 0.15)
2. #40 Lord vs. #10 Fernanda Contreras (Lord trails by 0.05)
3. #93 Lampl vs. #44 Christina Rosca (Lampl leads by 0.18)
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. Amanda Meyer (Arbuthnott leads by 0.21)
5. #96 Shin vs. Emma Kurtz (Shin leads by 0.35)
6. #102 Higuchi vs. Summer Dvorak (Higuchi leads by 0.48)
And at doubles:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #11 Sharma/Contreras
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #69 Kurtz/Smith
3. Lord/Shin vs. Rosca/Meyer
In doubles, as has been the case recently, our best opportunity is at #2, while we've got a shot at both other courts (probably a better shot on 3 than on 1).
Common Opponents
Florida: Stanford lost 4-3 (without Lord, ugh); Vanderbilt beat them 4-0, 4-3, and 4-0
North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Vanderbilt won 4-3
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Vanderbilt won 4-1
Recipe for beating the Commodores
For a team that's been ranked in the top three all year, it's surprising that Vanderbilt only has three ranked singles players, but as good as Vanderbilt is across the board, its depth isn't quite what other teams can boast, and in those 4-3 wins on its resume, it's often the doubles point and wins at the top three spots that sees Vandy through. On the flip side, the three times Vandy lost, they actually won the doubles point twice. Against Northwestern, they lost the doubles point and suffered losses at 2, 4, and 6 singles; against Pepperdine, they won the doubles point, but lost at 1, 2, 4, and 5; against Mississippi State, they won the doubles point, but lost at 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Looking at the UTR differentials, the Mississippi State result is the roadmap if we lose doubles again. We have solid leads at 5 and 6, slight leads at 3 and 4, and it's a coin flip at 2 and a slight Vandy lead at 1. Kurtz has been the weakest spot in their lineup this year, so let's hope Shin can keep her terrific run of form going and take advantage.
Prediction
Doubles is tight. Again. But this time, folks, we pull off a win on Courts 2 and 3 to get the doubles point. Higuchi is the first player to book a victory (exorcising her NCAA final demons from last year when she got double-bageled against Florida), and Shin follows suit soon after. Sharma books a win for Vandy over Gordon at 1, Lord has her hands full at 2, and Lampl is in a dogfight at 3, so it's Emily Arbuthnott who clinches a 4-1 Stanford win. If we lose doubles and need a 4th point, then the path to victory gets a lot murkier, but you'd be happy to take your shot with Melissa Lord or Caroline Lampl, given how well they've been playing. Lampl is technically favored by UTR, but Rosca took it to her in the second and third sets in Nashville back in February. But Caroline is a different player right now.
I've said time and time again that our championship hopes will depend on how well Lampl and Arbuthnott played. They were there for us today. We'll need them tomorrow.
Vanderbilt Preview
The #1 team for much of the year, Vanderbilt (27-3) rolled through the SEC as its regular season and tournament champion, suffering just three losses--to Pepperdine at ITA Indoors, at Northwestern, and at Mississippi State. No shame in losing to Pepperdine, and Northwestern at their place would be tough, but Mississippi State is a curious one. The Bulldogs aren't bad, mind you, but it's like losing to Washington in Seattle, which, come to think of it, we almost did, so never mind.
Vanderbilt is the #1 seed, the #1 team in the USTA rankings, and the #2 team in the ITA rankings, but only the #5 team by UTR Power 6 (in which we rank first). Slam.tennis pegs Vanderbilt as a 56% favorite to win, the same odds Duke had of beating us. Let's hope it plays out similarly.
Let's get this over with
So, yeah. They beat us 7-0 when we played them earlier this year. We've never lost 7-0 before, as far as I know. Now, sure, we didn't have Lord for that match, which meant that everyone had to play up a spot (I remain of the belief that if Lord had started the season healthy, she'd have been the #1, but Gordon took the spot and became the alpha as Lord worked her way back from injury). Even so, we played them close, with three of six singles matches going to a third set, and Yee on the wrong end of two tiebreakers. But 7-0 is what we do to the San Jose States of the world; nobody does that to us.
Due to lineup shuffling, there will only be two rematches from that February match: Gordon vs. Sharma (Sharma won in 3 sets) and Lampl v. Rosca (also a 3-setter).
Lineups
Here's how things will look, with UTR differential in parentheses:
1. #15 Gordon vs. #11 Astra Sharma (Gordon trails by 0.15)
2. #40 Lord vs. #10 Fernanda Contreras (Lord trails by 0.05)
3. #93 Lampl vs. #44 Christina Rosca (Lampl leads by 0.18)
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. Amanda Meyer (Arbuthnott leads by 0.21)
5. #96 Shin vs. Emma Kurtz (Shin leads by 0.35)
6. #102 Higuchi vs. Summer Dvorak (Higuchi leads by 0.48)
And at doubles:
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #11 Sharma/Contreras
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #69 Kurtz/Smith
3. Lord/Shin vs. Rosca/Meyer
In doubles, as has been the case recently, our best opportunity is at #2, while we've got a shot at both other courts (probably a better shot on 3 than on 1).
Common Opponents
Florida: Stanford lost 4-3 (without Lord, ugh); Vanderbilt beat them 4-0, 4-3, and 4-0
North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Vanderbilt won 4-3
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Vanderbilt won 4-1
Recipe for beating the Commodores
For a team that's been ranked in the top three all year, it's surprising that Vanderbilt only has three ranked singles players, but as good as Vanderbilt is across the board, its depth isn't quite what other teams can boast, and in those 4-3 wins on its resume, it's often the doubles point and wins at the top three spots that sees Vandy through. On the flip side, the three times Vandy lost, they actually won the doubles point twice. Against Northwestern, they lost the doubles point and suffered losses at 2, 4, and 6 singles; against Pepperdine, they won the doubles point, but lost at 1, 2, 4, and 5; against Mississippi State, they won the doubles point, but lost at 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Looking at the UTR differentials, the Mississippi State result is the roadmap if we lose doubles again. We have solid leads at 5 and 6, slight leads at 3 and 4, and it's a coin flip at 2 and a slight Vandy lead at 1. Kurtz has been the weakest spot in their lineup this year, so let's hope Shin can keep her terrific run of form going and take advantage.
Prediction
Doubles is tight. Again. But this time, folks, we pull off a win on Courts 2 and 3 to get the doubles point. Higuchi is the first player to book a victory (exorcising her NCAA final demons from last year when she got double-bageled against Florida), and Shin follows suit soon after. Sharma books a win for Vandy over Gordon at 1, Lord has her hands full at 2, and Lampl is in a dogfight at 3, so it's Emily Arbuthnott who clinches a 4-1 Stanford win. If we lose doubles and need a 4th point, then the path to victory gets a lot murkier, but you'd be happy to take your shot with Melissa Lord or Caroline Lampl, given how well they've been playing. Lampl is technically favored by UTR, but Rosca took it to her in the second and third sets in Nashville back in February. But Caroline is a different player right now.
I've said time and time again that our championship hopes will depend on how well Lampl and Arbuthnott played. They were there for us today. We'll need them tomorrow.