[wallendar]

As much I would love the Cardinal to make it into the CFP, I won't be upset if they don't.  The disparity in scheduling between conferences like the PAC12 on the one hand and conferences like the SEC on the other is just too great to compare apples to apples when it comes to deciding who gets in.  I don't buy that the playoff committee gives enough weight to strength of schedule.

Look at the schedule Stanford plays this year vs the one that Alabama has coming.

Stanford: nine conference games, six true road games, no neutral site games, six home games, and an FCS opponent in week three.  Four opponents in ESPN preseason FPI top 25 (one at home, three on the road).

Alabama: eight conference games, four true road games, one neutral site game, seven home games, and an FCS opponent the second last week of the season. Two opponents in ESPN preseason FPI top 25 (both home games).

Let’s face it - the P12 leadership doesn’t take football seriously.  If they did, they would permit teams to schedule FCS games in November.  They would create a conference schedule that maximizes the chances of the premier teams in the league to win.  And they would review the unbalanced structure of inter-divisional games to ensure equity.  In essence, they cut off their nose to spite their face.

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It is interesting that you noted 2011 and 2015 as special opportunities because both featured the odd-year schedule.  One of the problems this year is the even-year slate.  It could be the difference between a special year and a darn good one....

Agreed.  Washington State getting better makes the home slate a little less awful, but that road slate is still just brutal.  Oregon dipping a bit doesn't move the needle because Washington has gotten better.  And Chip Kelly will make that UCLA game tougher than it was under Mora.  

On the bright side, taking just one loss on that schedule might be enough for the playoff.

One loss (as long as it is not in the championship game) will be enough.  To quote a famous starship captain —-  Make it so!

[wallendar]

As much I would love the Cardinal to make it into the CFP, I won't be upset if they don't.  The disparity in scheduling between conferences like the PAC12 on the one hand and conferences like the SEC on the other is just too great to compare apples to apples when it comes to deciding who gets in.  I don't buy that the playoff committee gives enough weight to strength of schedule.

Look at the schedule Stanford plays this year vs the one that Alabama has coming.

Stanford: nine conference games, six true road games, no neutral site games, six home games, and an FCS opponent in week three.  Four opponents in ESPN preseason FPI top 25 (one at home, three on the road).

Alabama: eight conference games, four true road games, one neutral site game, seven home games, and an FCS opponent the second last week of the season. Two opponents in ESPN preseason FPI top 25 (both home games).

Let’s face it - the P12 leadership doesn’t take football seriously.  If they did, they would permit teams to schedule FCS games in November.  They would create a conference schedule that maximizes the chances of the premier teams in the league to win.  And they would review the unbalanced structure of inter-divisional games to ensure equity.  In essence, they cut off their nose to spite their face.

---

It is interesting that you noted 2011 and 2015 as special opportunities because both featured the odd-year schedule.  One of the problems this year is the even-year slate.  It could be the difference between a special year and a darn good one....

Agreed.  Washington State getting better makes the home slate a little less awful, but that road slate is still just brutal.  Oregon dipping a bit doesn't move the needle because Washington has gotten better.  And Chip Kelly will make that UCLA game tougher than it was under Mora.  

On the bright side, taking just one loss on that schedule might be enough for the playoff.

One loss (as long as it is not in the championship game) will be enough.  To quote a famous starship captain —-  Make it so!