08-12-2018, 07:03 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2018, 07:08 AM by OutsiderFan.)
I'm not about to claim Stanford will have an elite defense in 2018, but it does seem like it is going to be better than most people assume.
A very lazy analysis is to say Stanford wasn't good in 2017, lost Harrison Phillips and some other guys now on NFL rosters, so that means they will again struggle. I've suspected this could be the case before, but I am now going to stake my reputation on it. Stanford's DL will be better in 2018 than 2017, and this will make the whole defense better.
First, let's start with Phillips. He's getting pretty rave reviews in Buffalo. His first pre-season game netted him a sack and two tackles. The absurd tackle numbers Phillips had as a NT at Stanford is an indication he was miscast. He really should have played a 5 technique DE, but he was the only NT option Stanford had. Ideally Phillips is a 3 technique DT, which is what he is playing at Buffalo. This gives him responsibility for one gap, perfect for his ability to attack with strength and explosiveness. It's not so ideal for a NT who is responsible for two gaps. You guess wrong, and go fast, you leave a gaping hole. Though he racked up a ton of tackles at Stanford, you really don't want that from your NT, because his real job is to occupy blockers. In effect, Phillips' physical ability worked against Stanford's ability to stop the run consistently, because his role didn't suit what he does best.
Enter Michael Williams and DWP. Neither of these guys are going to be as strong and explosive as Phillips. But they can be more stationary, won't penetrate into the wrong gap as fast, and can be better at occupying blockers to free up the ILBs to make tackles. Plus, Stanford now has two guys who can play NT instead of just one, and maybe even three with Peek. Now people are going to say "but there was a brobdingnagian drop-off from Phillips to Williams last year." Yes, there was. But we now know Williams had and is fully recovered from heart surgery that limited his conditioning and strength. The few images I've seen of him from this camp, he looks really physically impressive, and the coaches have been saying good things about him. DWP has dropped weight and seems ready to play a key role too.
Turning to DE, Jovan Swann has consistently received acclaim since Summer started, and he really came on in 2017. He's bigger and stronger and ready to be a starter. Dylan Jackson's seeming dropping of weight is puzzling, but he's a 5th year Senior who has played a ton of snaps. Ryan Johnson is now ready to get into the rotation as a former highly touted guy with offers from Alabama and Auburn. I mentioned Peek as a possible NT, but he can probably play some DE, and allow Stanford to put out a short yardage DL of Williams, DWP, and Peek potentially. Not sure what Schaffer can bring, but he is bigger now, so may be he can get in the rotation. Then of course there is Thomas Booker, a True Frosh who is turning heads, and Andres Fox is lurking as someone who might be able to make an impact as sort of a pass rushing specialist DE.
I'm not going to spend near as much time on the LBs and DBs, because I don't think there is as much intrigue and potentially wrong assumptions being made there. Okereke and Holder have All Conference potential, and there is a lot of experience on the depth chart, plus certainly some guys who will step up and make an impact for the first time.
Again, not the most elite unit in the world, but I would be really quite surprised if the 2018 defense isn't better than the 2017 version because the DL will be better at stopping the run than it has been lately. Pretty hard not to improve on giving up 4.6 YPC (good for #80 in FBS) when there are 65 Power 5 schools. Improvement in run defense will also create longer 3rd down situations to help improve Stanford's also dismal #102-ranked, 43.4% yielding 2017 3rd down defense.
A very lazy analysis is to say Stanford wasn't good in 2017, lost Harrison Phillips and some other guys now on NFL rosters, so that means they will again struggle. I've suspected this could be the case before, but I am now going to stake my reputation on it. Stanford's DL will be better in 2018 than 2017, and this will make the whole defense better.
First, let's start with Phillips. He's getting pretty rave reviews in Buffalo. His first pre-season game netted him a sack and two tackles. The absurd tackle numbers Phillips had as a NT at Stanford is an indication he was miscast. He really should have played a 5 technique DE, but he was the only NT option Stanford had. Ideally Phillips is a 3 technique DT, which is what he is playing at Buffalo. This gives him responsibility for one gap, perfect for his ability to attack with strength and explosiveness. It's not so ideal for a NT who is responsible for two gaps. You guess wrong, and go fast, you leave a gaping hole. Though he racked up a ton of tackles at Stanford, you really don't want that from your NT, because his real job is to occupy blockers. In effect, Phillips' physical ability worked against Stanford's ability to stop the run consistently, because his role didn't suit what he does best.
Enter Michael Williams and DWP. Neither of these guys are going to be as strong and explosive as Phillips. But they can be more stationary, won't penetrate into the wrong gap as fast, and can be better at occupying blockers to free up the ILBs to make tackles. Plus, Stanford now has two guys who can play NT instead of just one, and maybe even three with Peek. Now people are going to say "but there was a brobdingnagian drop-off from Phillips to Williams last year." Yes, there was. But we now know Williams had and is fully recovered from heart surgery that limited his conditioning and strength. The few images I've seen of him from this camp, he looks really physically impressive, and the coaches have been saying good things about him. DWP has dropped weight and seems ready to play a key role too.
Turning to DE, Jovan Swann has consistently received acclaim since Summer started, and he really came on in 2017. He's bigger and stronger and ready to be a starter. Dylan Jackson's seeming dropping of weight is puzzling, but he's a 5th year Senior who has played a ton of snaps. Ryan Johnson is now ready to get into the rotation as a former highly touted guy with offers from Alabama and Auburn. I mentioned Peek as a possible NT, but he can probably play some DE, and allow Stanford to put out a short yardage DL of Williams, DWP, and Peek potentially. Not sure what Schaffer can bring, but he is bigger now, so may be he can get in the rotation. Then of course there is Thomas Booker, a True Frosh who is turning heads, and Andres Fox is lurking as someone who might be able to make an impact as sort of a pass rushing specialist DE.
I'm not going to spend near as much time on the LBs and DBs, because I don't think there is as much intrigue and potentially wrong assumptions being made there. Okereke and Holder have All Conference potential, and there is a lot of experience on the depth chart, plus certainly some guys who will step up and make an impact for the first time.
Again, not the most elite unit in the world, but I would be really quite surprised if the 2018 defense isn't better than the 2017 version because the DL will be better at stopping the run than it has been lately. Pretty hard not to improve on giving up 4.6 YPC (good for #80 in FBS) when there are 65 Power 5 schools. Improvement in run defense will also create longer 3rd down situations to help improve Stanford's also dismal #102-ranked, 43.4% yielding 2017 3rd down defense.