09-09-2018, 01:28 PM
I think USC is a good team with great talent, but they're in a very tough off-cycle situation.
In other circumstances, I could see them finishing 9-3, but because they have the balls to schedule non-conference games against Notre Dame and Texas, and because of the apparent parity in the Pac-12 South this year, I could still see them with a very good record like 8-4.
I think it was just unreasonable to expect great things out of them this year. If I were to describe how I find their offensive system scary, it's that they have a fleet of very athletic tall, strong, fast, rangy receivers, and they stick 4 out there, and they usually have an NFL-bound running back. Focus on the run, and there are outstanding receivers out there 1:1 you can tear you up with YAC. Focus on the pass, and their line will open a seam and their running back will zigzag through your vacant box.
It's just that this year, they have the combination of a less-than-average line not protecting the QB, and a true Frosh quarterback with 3 years of high school experience (he's 18, but he repeated 8th grade and later skipped 12 grade). You could criticize USC for not lining up a QB sooner, but when there's a top NFL talent in place, I could see that making it harder to recruit QBs until Darnold was gone.
USC's situation reminds me of Stanford in '16 when the QB, most of the line, and the center all graduated or left. It's a difficult combination. If you have an experienced QB, you can partially compensate for a new center. If you have an experienced center & line with great pass protection, you can partially compensate for a new QB. But when you're swapping in complementary pieces across-the-board, it's a mess.
In these times for USC, as for Stanford in '16, people cry out that the "system" is broken and that they want to change their identity. USC's identity is fine. It's near-impossible not to expect an off-year. If the other pieces can emerge well enough, fast enough (unlikely, but theoretically possible), they could still be a very, very dangerous team late in the season.
But still, yesterday's strong victory was a great, quality win for Stanford. Beating 2018 USC is like beating the 2016 Cardinal (which finished 12th in the nation) -- a great program, with future stars, in an off-cycle year due to NFL departures.
In other circumstances, I could see them finishing 9-3, but because they have the balls to schedule non-conference games against Notre Dame and Texas, and because of the apparent parity in the Pac-12 South this year, I could still see them with a very good record like 8-4.
I think it was just unreasonable to expect great things out of them this year. If I were to describe how I find their offensive system scary, it's that they have a fleet of very athletic tall, strong, fast, rangy receivers, and they stick 4 out there, and they usually have an NFL-bound running back. Focus on the run, and there are outstanding receivers out there 1:1 you can tear you up with YAC. Focus on the pass, and their line will open a seam and their running back will zigzag through your vacant box.
It's just that this year, they have the combination of a less-than-average line not protecting the QB, and a true Frosh quarterback with 3 years of high school experience (he's 18, but he repeated 8th grade and later skipped 12 grade). You could criticize USC for not lining up a QB sooner, but when there's a top NFL talent in place, I could see that making it harder to recruit QBs until Darnold was gone.
USC's situation reminds me of Stanford in '16 when the QB, most of the line, and the center all graduated or left. It's a difficult combination. If you have an experienced QB, you can partially compensate for a new center. If you have an experienced center & line with great pass protection, you can partially compensate for a new QB. But when you're swapping in complementary pieces across-the-board, it's a mess.
In these times for USC, as for Stanford in '16, people cry out that the "system" is broken and that they want to change their identity. USC's identity is fine. It's near-impossible not to expect an off-year. If the other pieces can emerge well enough, fast enough (unlikely, but theoretically possible), they could still be a very, very dangerous team late in the season.
But still, yesterday's strong victory was a great, quality win for Stanford. Beating 2018 USC is like beating the 2016 Cardinal (which finished 12th in the nation) -- a great program, with future stars, in an off-cycle year due to NFL departures.