09-11-2018, 04:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-11-2018, 04:13 PM by washingtonismoney.)
(09-11-2018, 04:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The ESPN probability meter was at 99.7% at the time of the play (although take their model with a grain of salt). At that point, the chance of an injury on any given play was higher than the chance of losing the game.
BC
Yeah, though I suspect the probability model may be a bit misleading. The probability model includes a bunch of different scenarios -- like "Stanford, the home team, is likely to win in overtime" -- that would give the audience and coaches a heart attack if they came to pass.
More relevantly, I'm guessing (though don't know for sure) that the probabilities are on some level based on continuing to play the starters: that is, they assumed Stanford was at least semi-likely to convert a first down based on its stats so far in the game. They don't necessarily answer the question of "how much less likely is Stanford to win if it replaces Love with Scarlett, and how does that compare to the risk of serious injury from another carry?"
This is probably a longer explication of what you meant by "take their model with a grain of salt" but I think it's worth drawing out.