[Goose]

If UW beats us, we are out, period, unless just possibly UW loses two games to schools in the North. Losing to Utah helps us only in some complex tiebreaker, as I see it.

Probably true, but not necessarily.  In 2015, Oregon beat us and was 7-2 in the conference, with losses to Utah and WSU.  If they didn't have that loss to Utah, it would have meant no conference championship, no Rose Bowl victory, and no #3 ranking for us.  Any UW conference loss could end up mattering this year, especially if they end up losing again to ASU, Oregon, etc.

Here's another way of putting this.  A loss by UW has tangible value for us by increasing our odds of winning the Pac 12 North, while a win by UW has ephemeral "national perception" value that could easily change as the season continues.  

I guess I'm with the others - Go Utes!

It is true that if Washington has a lower winning percentage in the conference than we do, we would win the North championship. So, if Washington lost to Utah and another PAC-12 school, North or South, while we lost only to Washington, we are the North champion. However, in that scenario, we probably aren't getting into the final group of four anyway. I guess we could sneak in if the B1G and/or Big-12 champion also had a loss, but with the anti-PAC12 bias, it is far from a sure thing. I guess I am valuing the "ephemeral" advantage of beating a 1 loss Washington team as the only way we can get into the "final four".

[Goose]

If UW beats us, we are out, period, unless just possibly UW loses two games to schools in the North. Losing to Utah helps us only in some complex tiebreaker, as I see it.

Probably true, but not necessarily.  In 2015, Oregon beat us and was 7-2 in the conference, with losses to Utah and WSU.  If they didn't have that loss to Utah, it would have meant no conference championship, no Rose Bowl victory, and no #3 ranking for us.  Any UW conference loss could end up mattering this year, especially if they end up losing again to ASU, Oregon, etc.

Here's another way of putting this.  A loss by UW has tangible value for us by increasing our odds of winning the Pac 12 North, while a win by UW has ephemeral "national perception" value that could easily change as the season continues.  

I guess I'm with the others - Go Utes!

It is true that if Washington has a lower winning percentage in the conference than we do, we would win the North championship. So, if Washington lost to Utah and another PAC-12 school, North or South, while we lost only to Washington, we are the North champion. However, in that scenario, we probably aren't getting into the final group of four anyway. I guess we could sneak in if the B1G and/or Big-12 champion also had a loss, but with the anti-PAC12 bias, it is far from a sure thing. I guess I am valuing the "ephemeral" advantage of beating a 1 loss Washington team as the only way we can get into the "final four".