[Goose]

I certainly agree that it is total conjecture what effect a Utah victory vs. a UW victory may have on Stanford. However, I fear that UW could fall apart with a loss to Utah. It may convince them  that they aren't very good, have two losses, and are going noplace. This has been a typical USC reaction in the past when they get their third loss or so, and they just quit. The UW coach is a good coach, but it depends a lot on the team how it processes adversity. Washington was projected as at worst a one loss team by all the pundits only a few weeks ago. Having that not be true could really hurt their subsequent performance.

That would leave Stanford as the only team in the conference with any kind of national credibility. (I don't yet think ASU is for real.) We would get no breaks based on strength of schedule, etc, even if on paper that isn't quite fair. OTOH, Utah will never get any love from the national media no matter how good they actually are. They are so far under the radar that they could go undefeated and nobody would notice. OK, that is a bit of an overstatement, but only by a bit.

IMHO, the only realistic path Stanford has to the "final four" is to go undefeated in the PAC-12 North. If UW doesn't totally self-destruct, they aren't going to lose two conference games without one of them being Stanford. If we lose more than one game, we aren't getting into the final four anyway, and neither is UW with two losses. For the other "major" bowls, there are just too many imponderables to even guess the "best" Utah-UW outcome. My choice to support UW is based on the hope that if Stanford has one loss, wins the North, and wins the PAC-12 we will be selected to the final four. My fear is the first three happen and the fourth doesn't. If we are undefeated, none of this matters. If we have one loss, beating UW as a highly ranked one loss team may help push the vote in our favor. Beating them as an "also ran" will not so much.

[Goose]

I certainly agree that it is total conjecture what effect a Utah victory vs. a UW victory may have on Stanford. However, I fear that UW could fall apart with a loss to Utah. It may convince them  that they aren't very good, have two losses, and are going noplace. This has been a typical USC reaction in the past when they get their third loss or so, and they just quit. The UW coach is a good coach, but it depends a lot on the team how it processes adversity. Washington was projected as at worst a one loss team by all the pundits only a few weeks ago. Having that not be true could really hurt their subsequent performance.

That would leave Stanford as the only team in the conference with any kind of national credibility. (I don't yet think ASU is for real.) We would get no breaks based on strength of schedule, etc, even if on paper that isn't quite fair. OTOH, Utah will never get any love from the national media no matter how good they actually are. They are so far under the radar that they could go undefeated and nobody would notice. OK, that is a bit of an overstatement, but only by a bit.

IMHO, the only realistic path Stanford has to the "final four" is to go undefeated in the PAC-12 North. If UW doesn't totally self-destruct, they aren't going to lose two conference games without one of them being Stanford. If we lose more than one game, we aren't getting into the final four anyway, and neither is UW with two losses. For the other "major" bowls, there are just too many imponderables to even guess the "best" Utah-UW outcome. My choice to support UW is based on the hope that if Stanford has one loss, wins the North, and wins the PAC-12 we will be selected to the final four. My fear is the first three happen and the fourth doesn't. If we are undefeated, none of this matters. If we have one loss, beating UW as a highly ranked one loss team may help push the vote in our favor. Beating them as an "also ran" will not so much.