[BostonCard]

On the other hand, passing is (so far) much more effective. Sacks are slightly down (3.15% of dropbacks end in a sack this year, versus 4.47% in 2017). And yards per attempt are up by a healthy margin -- Costello has 8.3 YPA versus 7.2 for last year's motley crew. The big flaw with the passing game is, again, efficiency: Costello's completion percentage is modestly up (61.4% versus 58.8%), but it's still much lower than you'd like. 

I think this is the absolute key for everything, and although passing is improved versus last year, I'm not sure Costello is ready to shoulder the offensive load.  Costello right now ranks 62nd in the country in terms of completion percentage,  42nd in the country in YPA, and 42nd in the country in terms of pass efficiency rating. He had a great game against SDSU (68% completion rate, 10.7 YPA, and PER of 194) but has had subpar games against SC (59% completion rate, 6.8 ypa, PER of 128) and Davis (57% completion rate, 7.1 YPA, PER of 125).

Overall, Costello so far this year is comparable to what Hogan achieved his first full year starting 2013, a year we went to the Rose Bowl, but that team relied on a great defense plus Gaffney pounding out 122 yards per game.  Moreover, if Costello is doing this against defenses poised to stop the run, and we are proposing to increase his workload, then we would expect that his production will likely decline as defenses adjust.

I do agree with folks that we probably need to get defenses to back off stacking against the run.  However, if we are going to successfully get Costello to shoulder more of the offensive burden, he needs to get his completion percentage up in the 65% range, which Hogan achieved both in 2014 (a "down" year for him) and 2015.  And if Costello can't get his accuracy up, then we are looking at a disappointing offensive year (and I suspect it won't be long until folks here clamor for Davis Mills).

BC

[BostonCard]

On the other hand, passing is (so far) much more effective. Sacks are slightly down (3.15% of dropbacks end in a sack this year, versus 4.47% in 2017). And yards per attempt are up by a healthy margin -- Costello has 8.3 YPA versus 7.2 for last year's motley crew. The big flaw with the passing game is, again, efficiency: Costello's completion percentage is modestly up (61.4% versus 58.8%), but it's still much lower than you'd like. 

I think this is the absolute key for everything, and although passing is improved versus last year, I'm not sure Costello is ready to shoulder the offensive load.  Costello right now ranks 62nd in the country in terms of completion percentage,  42nd in the country in YPA, and 42nd in the country in terms of pass efficiency rating. He had a great game against SDSU (68% completion rate, 10.7 YPA, and PER of 194) but has had subpar games against SC (59% completion rate, 6.8 ypa, PER of 128) and Davis (57% completion rate, 7.1 YPA, PER of 125).

Overall, Costello so far this year is comparable to what Hogan achieved his first full year starting 2013, a year we went to the Rose Bowl, but that team relied on a great defense plus Gaffney pounding out 122 yards per game.  Moreover, if Costello is doing this against defenses poised to stop the run, and we are proposing to increase his workload, then we would expect that his production will likely decline as defenses adjust.

I do agree with folks that we probably need to get defenses to back off stacking against the run.  However, if we are going to successfully get Costello to shoulder more of the offensive burden, he needs to get his completion percentage up in the 65% range, which Hogan achieved both in 2014 (a "down" year for him) and 2015.  And if Costello can't get his accuracy up, then we are looking at a disappointing offensive year (and I suspect it won't be long until folks here clamor for Davis Mills).

BC