[BostonCard]

First off, I cannot see it explicitly stated, but I think a first down play from outside the 10 yard line that results in a TD is both a first down and a TD. Less likely a TD from inside the 10 counts as a first down, but I don't know. 

[..lots of great stuff...]

Maybe I'm missing another of immense proportions first down gain and our successful first downs averaged 25 yds/play. Maybe the two second down scenario is a bigger factor than I think. Or maybe there were significant rounding issues in the original claim.

That was my intuition as well, but I was too lazy to try and calculate it.  I think it is implausible.  However, the broader point that we are not very effective on first down and consequently are facing a lot of second-and-longs holds true.

cfbstats does do a nice breakdown of to-go distance on third down:
1 - 3 yards to go: 3 carries for 5 yards, 1 first down rushing; 1 pass for 0 yards (4 total 3rd and shorts, of which we converted 1)
4 - 6 yards to go: 1 carry for 2 yards; 8 passes for 75 yards, 6 first downs, 1 TD (9 total 3rd and mediums, of which we converted 6)
7 - 9 yards to go: 3 carries for 6 yards; 9 passes for 81 yards, 5 first downs, 1 TD (12 total 3rd and longs, of which we converted 5)
10+ yards to go: 6 carries for 29 yards; 11 passes for 131 yards, 2 first downs, 1 TD and 1 INT (17 total 3rd and forevers, which we converted 2)

Those are dreadful numbers.  We shouldn't have more 3rd and 10+ to go situations than 3rd and shorts.  I can't calculate the exact to go distance at third down, but taking the midpoint of the yardages and 11 as the average 3rd and 10+ to go, I get a whopping 8 yards to go (and probably more).

BC

[BostonCard]

First off, I cannot see it explicitly stated, but I think a first down play from outside the 10 yard line that results in a TD is both a first down and a TD. Less likely a TD from inside the 10 counts as a first down, but I don't know. 

[..lots of great stuff...]

Maybe I'm missing another of immense proportions first down gain and our successful first downs averaged 25 yds/play. Maybe the two second down scenario is a bigger factor than I think. Or maybe there were significant rounding issues in the original claim.

That was my intuition as well, but I was too lazy to try and calculate it.  I think it is implausible.  However, the broader point that we are not very effective on first down and consequently are facing a lot of second-and-longs holds true.

cfbstats does do a nice breakdown of to-go distance on third down:
1 - 3 yards to go: 3 carries for 5 yards, 1 first down rushing; 1 pass for 0 yards (4 total 3rd and shorts, of which we converted 1)
4 - 6 yards to go: 1 carry for 2 yards; 8 passes for 75 yards, 6 first downs, 1 TD (9 total 3rd and mediums, of which we converted 6)
7 - 9 yards to go: 3 carries for 6 yards; 9 passes for 81 yards, 5 first downs, 1 TD (12 total 3rd and longs, of which we converted 5)
10+ yards to go: 6 carries for 29 yards; 11 passes for 131 yards, 2 first downs, 1 TD and 1 INT (17 total 3rd and forevers, which we converted 2)

Those are dreadful numbers.  We shouldn't have more 3rd and 10+ to go situations than 3rd and shorts.  I can't calculate the exact to go distance at third down, but taking the midpoint of the yardages and 11 as the average 3rd and 10+ to go, I get a whopping 8 yards to go (and probably more).

BC