[CTcard]

I kind of remember in lucks final two years a decent number of first down passes.   Anyone out there have any stats to confirm or refute this?   At any rate, this week I would not be surprised to see first down passing approaching 40%

2018 
All Plays - 49% runs
First Down - 62.5% runs

2011 (Luck Senior year)
All Plays - 55% runs
First Down - 63% runs

2010 (Luck Junior year, Harbaugh final year)
All Plays - 59% runs
First Down - 67% runs

2014*
All Plays - 56% runs
First Down - 66% runs

A few notes. 
- To give some perspective on these numbers, generally few teams pass more often than they run over the course of a season. Last year, only three Pac 12 teams did so: WSU (of course), UCLA (Rosen), Cal (surprise to me). 
- *I include 2014 because it was the one other year Stanford tried to pass a lot under Shaw. However, that completely changed over the final three games of the season (and sort of the final four), making the season long stats not that far out of line from other Shaw years. 
- So far this year, Stanford has been passing a little more on first downs than any other year under Shaw and quite a bit more overall. 
- There are two issues to note with the fact that so far this year we only have three games to look at. 
Almost assuredly, Stanford has had three games in other years with more passing - and likely even three games in a row. 
On the other hand, these are three games that Stanford won handily - the minimum margin being two touchdowns. All teams run more often with the lead with Stanford apparently more extreme in that regard. Thus the higher passing numbers are in games where one would expect higher running numbers. 
- And while this goes into the "of course" category, it is worth remembering that while run vs pass is easy to see during a game and easy to find relevant stats, it is far too simplistic to think about Stanford's strategies and play calling. What types of run and pass games Stanford uses is perhaps more on point. 

On that score, the changes in the Stanford run game over the past few seasons haven't been commented upon much. Without doing any counting, it looks to me as if Stanford has switched from being a primarily man-blocking team to primarily a zone-blocking team. That seems to coincide with fewer snaps under center and more in the shot-gun - though my impression is that Costello is under center more than Chryst was. 

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I am not as thrilled with the Rivals article as OutsiderFan. 
It's fine, but it seems to be reflecting standard fan talking points more than breaking any new ground. 

In particular, as always, I wouldn't take what Shaw or any coach says at face value. Shaw is always mindful that he is talking to his team as much as the media and the fan base - and presumably cares much more about the former. 

I don't think that all these comments about suddenly this year opposing teams are selling out to stop our run game are remotely true, and doubt Shaw really believes it. While it's true that the scheme SDSU runs is unique, it looks to me as if their approach last year was basically the same. More broadly, every team that plays Stanford for a decade now believes that first and foremost their job is to stop our run game. There are wrinkles of course, there always are - but fundamentally Stanford is seeing what Stanford teams have seen for some time. 

Thus, my take is that right now Shaw believes that the OL needs some bucking up of their confidence. The comments about extreme defensive approaches, "it's my fault for being stubborn", etc. are more about trying to protect the individuals on the line than a candid evaluation of the problems and intended solutions.

[CTcard]

I kind of remember in lucks final two years a decent number of first down passes.   Anyone out there have any stats to confirm or refute this?   At any rate, this week I would not be surprised to see first down passing approaching 40%

2018 
All Plays - 49% runs
First Down - 62.5% runs

2011 (Luck Senior year)
All Plays - 55% runs
First Down - 63% runs

2010 (Luck Junior year, Harbaugh final year)
All Plays - 59% runs
First Down - 67% runs

2014*
All Plays - 56% runs
First Down - 66% runs

A few notes. 
- To give some perspective on these numbers, generally few teams pass more often than they run over the course of a season. Last year, only three Pac 12 teams did so: WSU (of course), UCLA (Rosen), Cal (surprise to me). 
- *I include 2014 because it was the one other year Stanford tried to pass a lot under Shaw. However, that completely changed over the final three games of the season (and sort of the final four), making the season long stats not that far out of line from other Shaw years. 
- So far this year, Stanford has been passing a little more on first downs than any other year under Shaw and quite a bit more overall. 
- There are two issues to note with the fact that so far this year we only have three games to look at. 
Almost assuredly, Stanford has had three games in other years with more passing - and likely even three games in a row. 
On the other hand, these are three games that Stanford won handily - the minimum margin being two touchdowns. All teams run more often with the lead with Stanford apparently more extreme in that regard. Thus the higher passing numbers are in games where one would expect higher running numbers. 
- And while this goes into the "of course" category, it is worth remembering that while run vs pass is easy to see during a game and easy to find relevant stats, it is far too simplistic to think about Stanford's strategies and play calling. What types of run and pass games Stanford uses is perhaps more on point. 

On that score, the changes in the Stanford run game over the past few seasons haven't been commented upon much. Without doing any counting, it looks to me as if Stanford has switched from being a primarily man-blocking team to primarily a zone-blocking team. That seems to coincide with fewer snaps under center and more in the shot-gun - though my impression is that Costello is under center more than Chryst was. 

--------------
I am not as thrilled with the Rivals article as OutsiderFan. 
It's fine, but it seems to be reflecting standard fan talking points more than breaking any new ground. 

In particular, as always, I wouldn't take what Shaw or any coach says at face value. Shaw is always mindful that he is talking to his team as much as the media and the fan base - and presumably cares much more about the former. 

I don't think that all these comments about suddenly this year opposing teams are selling out to stop our run game are remotely true, and doubt Shaw really believes it. While it's true that the scheme SDSU runs is unique, it looks to me as if their approach last year was basically the same. More broadly, every team that plays Stanford for a decade now believes that first and foremost their job is to stop our run game. There are wrinkles of course, there always are - but fundamentally Stanford is seeing what Stanford teams have seen for some time. 

Thus, my take is that right now Shaw believes that the OL needs some bucking up of their confidence. The comments about extreme defensive approaches, "it's my fault for being stubborn", etc. are more about trying to protect the individuals on the line than a candid evaluation of the problems and intended solutions.