[shinsengumi]

This is interesting data and consistent with my impression that the power formation usually does get one yard or more. Scarlett in particular is adept at leaping for a yard or two. While it is frustrating that the play didn't work against Oregon, it is hard to argue with Shaw calling a play that works 70% of the time.  I don't think there are a lot of other plays that he could have called that would have had greater than a 70% chance of working.  The jumbo package doesn't always pick up a lot but it usually picks up one yard. It wasn't a stupid call. It just didn't work at that moment.

Perhaps so. I guess it depends on if you consider <70% conversion in these situations good enough. After all, on average, ~60 teams have done better than us in these situations over the last two full seasons.

OTOH, the actual % differences between our excellent short-yardage teams (2015) and middling short-yardage teams (2017) is not that great. So there's that.

[shinsengumi]

This is interesting data and consistent with my impression that the power formation usually does get one yard or more. Scarlett in particular is adept at leaping for a yard or two. While it is frustrating that the play didn't work against Oregon, it is hard to argue with Shaw calling a play that works 70% of the time.  I don't think there are a lot of other plays that he could have called that would have had greater than a 70% chance of working.  The jumbo package doesn't always pick up a lot but it usually picks up one yard. It wasn't a stupid call. It just didn't work at that moment.

Perhaps so. I guess it depends on if you consider <70% conversion in these situations good enough. After all, on average, ~60 teams have done better than us in these situations over the last two full seasons.

OTOH, the actual % differences between our excellent short-yardage teams (2015) and middling short-yardage teams (2017) is not that great. So there's that.