[BostonCard]

This seems to be the second major time that the coaching staff apparently completely misread the strengths and weaknesses of their offense. In 2014 they thought they didn't have a run game and thought Hogan could be a high volume passer. So they tried to institute a pass-first, pass-heavy, pass-to-control-the-ball offense. It was awful, and notably mistake filled.  Meanwhile, they never noticed that while the early season run game wasn't great it was better than the pass game. More importantly they never really figured out what they had sitting on the bench in McCaffrey until the next season (and a little at the end of the 2014 season). 

I think there is a risk of over-interpreting the lessons of 2014.  I agree with you that moving to a pass first offense was problematic, and that we would have been more successful with a more balanced offense.  That being said, the offense averaged a bit over 4.3 yards per cary (the number is depressed due to sacks), which is our worst running average between 2009 and 2017 (obviously, this year is much worse; 2009 happens to be the first year that cfbstats has data for), and was about average for a Pac-12 team that year. Nor did something magic happen in the last three games, even though the offense played a lot better overall.  Against Cal, UCLA, and Maryland, we averaged 4.34, 4.49, and 4.58 yards per carry.  The big difference, of course, is we ran a lot more (47, 45, and 45 rushes, including sacks), but we weren't a ton more effective doing so.  McCaffrey pulled that average up, but he started seeing more carries against Utah (8, a season high to that point), a game where we only scored 17 points in a loss.

The other thing about McCaffrey is that our coaches emphasize pass blocking in running backs, and, especially in 2014, where we needed max protection to compensate for a poor pass-blocking OL, while McCaffrey's skill, especially as a freshman, was catching passes out of the backfield.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't have given McCaffrey more touches, earlier, but it is easy to become enamored with an un-disproveable counterfactual.

BC

[BostonCard]

This seems to be the second major time that the coaching staff apparently completely misread the strengths and weaknesses of their offense. In 2014 they thought they didn't have a run game and thought Hogan could be a high volume passer. So they tried to institute a pass-first, pass-heavy, pass-to-control-the-ball offense. It was awful, and notably mistake filled.  Meanwhile, they never noticed that while the early season run game wasn't great it was better than the pass game. More importantly they never really figured out what they had sitting on the bench in McCaffrey until the next season (and a little at the end of the 2014 season). 

I think there is a risk of over-interpreting the lessons of 2014.  I agree with you that moving to a pass first offense was problematic, and that we would have been more successful with a more balanced offense.  That being said, the offense averaged a bit over 4.3 yards per cary (the number is depressed due to sacks), which is our worst running average between 2009 and 2017 (obviously, this year is much worse; 2009 happens to be the first year that cfbstats has data for), and was about average for a Pac-12 team that year. Nor did something magic happen in the last three games, even though the offense played a lot better overall.  Against Cal, UCLA, and Maryland, we averaged 4.34, 4.49, and 4.58 yards per carry.  The big difference, of course, is we ran a lot more (47, 45, and 45 rushes, including sacks), but we weren't a ton more effective doing so.  McCaffrey pulled that average up, but he started seeing more carries against Utah (8, a season high to that point), a game where we only scored 17 points in a loss.

The other thing about McCaffrey is that our coaches emphasize pass blocking in running backs, and, especially in 2014, where we needed max protection to compensate for a poor pass-blocking OL, while McCaffrey's skill, especially as a freshman, was catching passes out of the backfield.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't have given McCaffrey more touches, earlier, but it is easy to become enamored with an un-disproveable counterfactual.

BC