[CTcard]

I think there is a risk of over-interpreting the lessons of 2014.  I agree with you that moving to a pass first offense was problematic, and that we would have been more successful with a more balanced offense.  That being said, the offense averaged a bit over 4.3 yards per cary (the number is depressed due to sacks), which is our worst running average between 2009 and 2017 (obviously, this year is much worse; 2009 happens to be the first year that cfbstats has data for), and was about average for a Pac-12 team that year. Nor did something magic happen in the last three games, even though the offense played a lot better overall.  Against Cal, UCLA, and Maryland, we averaged 4.34, 4.49, and 4.58 yards per carry.  The big difference, of course, is we ran a lot more (47, 45, and 45 rushes, including sacks), but we weren't a ton more effective doing so.  McCaffrey pulled that average up, but he started seeing more carries against Utah (8, a season high to that point), a game where we only scored 17 points in a loss.

The other thing about McCaffrey is that our coaches emphasize pass blocking in running backs, and, especially in 2014, where we needed max protection to compensate for a poor pass-blocking OL, while McCaffrey's skill, especially as a freshman, was catching passes out of the backfield.

You missed the key element of what happened at the end of 2014.

The issue all season long was that the run game wasn't all that much worse than other years, but the coaches abandoned it. The pass game was good enough to succeed against bad teams (big numbers vs OSU, WSU) but not against good teams with a particular issues of "mistakes" like holding, interceptions, sacks, etc.

Over the final three games Stanford ran the ball a ton more - and not just with McCaffrey. Wright remained our main back and had 48 carries in the three games, including his two highest workload games of the year. [McCaffrey had 19 carries in those three games, never as many as Wright]. The key was that they ran a ton more and the per carry numbers maintained. That allowed the pass game to flourish. The pass  numbers became WAY better: 10.7, 12.3, and 9.7 yds per attempt with 1 sack and 1 INT over three games, PER=186.


But that was 2014, its not the situation today. Our run game is not working at all at the moment. The pass game hasn't collapsed upon ramping up the number of plays, but there have been issues of "mistakes", interceptions and sacks, that have killed us. While we need to keep running enough to support the pass game, clearly the best mixture right now involves a lot more passing than it did in 2014.

[CTcard]

I think there is a risk of over-interpreting the lessons of 2014.  I agree with you that moving to a pass first offense was problematic, and that we would have been more successful with a more balanced offense.  That being said, the offense averaged a bit over 4.3 yards per cary (the number is depressed due to sacks), which is our worst running average between 2009 and 2017 (obviously, this year is much worse; 2009 happens to be the first year that cfbstats has data for), and was about average for a Pac-12 team that year. Nor did something magic happen in the last three games, even though the offense played a lot better overall.  Against Cal, UCLA, and Maryland, we averaged 4.34, 4.49, and 4.58 yards per carry.  The big difference, of course, is we ran a lot more (47, 45, and 45 rushes, including sacks), but we weren't a ton more effective doing so.  McCaffrey pulled that average up, but he started seeing more carries against Utah (8, a season high to that point), a game where we only scored 17 points in a loss.

The other thing about McCaffrey is that our coaches emphasize pass blocking in running backs, and, especially in 2014, where we needed max protection to compensate for a poor pass-blocking OL, while McCaffrey's skill, especially as a freshman, was catching passes out of the backfield.

You missed the key element of what happened at the end of 2014.

The issue all season long was that the run game wasn't all that much worse than other years, but the coaches abandoned it. The pass game was good enough to succeed against bad teams (big numbers vs OSU, WSU) but not against good teams with a particular issues of "mistakes" like holding, interceptions, sacks, etc.

Over the final three games Stanford ran the ball a ton more - and not just with McCaffrey. Wright remained our main back and had 48 carries in the three games, including his two highest workload games of the year. [McCaffrey had 19 carries in those three games, never as many as Wright]. The key was that they ran a ton more and the per carry numbers maintained. That allowed the pass game to flourish. The pass  numbers became WAY better: 10.7, 12.3, and 9.7 yds per attempt with 1 sack and 1 INT over three games, PER=186.


But that was 2014, its not the situation today. Our run game is not working at all at the moment. The pass game hasn't collapsed upon ramping up the number of plays, but there have been issues of "mistakes", interceptions and sacks, that have killed us. While we need to keep running enough to support the pass game, clearly the best mixture right now involves a lot more passing than it did in 2014.