[CTcard]

Start games running a pro style offense with 22 personnel (1 RB, 1 FB, 1 TE, 2 WRs),

That's 21 personnel as I was taught [2 RB, 1 TE].

give the same look for run and pass to start games,

Personally, I am not much of a fan of the shotgun outside of obvious passing downs.
I would prefer under center in whatever formation.
And while I understand why Stanford changes formation so much, I personally am in favor of formations that give more flexibility to play calls.

and start with play acton passes.  ...  Stanford may even be able to get behind safeties given how they too may overcommit to run.

So far, Stanford has been getting behind safeties, and having opponents giving no safety help over the top, regularly. That seems to be ending, as opponents realize we have no run game even against max-coverage. As it ends, play action may become more useful, though it is not clear that Stanford is very good at this.

When is the last time one paid dearly for overcommitting to stopping something? 

Well, San Diego State for sure.
Oregon was still playing a lot of run-first D in the second half as we passed the ball over them.

[CTcard]

Start games running a pro style offense with 22 personnel (1 RB, 1 FB, 1 TE, 2 WRs),

That's 21 personnel as I was taught [2 RB, 1 TE].

give the same look for run and pass to start games,

Personally, I am not much of a fan of the shotgun outside of obvious passing downs.
I would prefer under center in whatever formation.
And while I understand why Stanford changes formation so much, I personally am in favor of formations that give more flexibility to play calls.

and start with play acton passes.  ...  Stanford may even be able to get behind safeties given how they too may overcommit to run.

So far, Stanford has been getting behind safeties, and having opponents giving no safety help over the top, regularly. That seems to be ending, as opponents realize we have no run game even against max-coverage. As it ends, play action may become more useful, though it is not clear that Stanford is very good at this.

When is the last time one paid dearly for overcommitting to stopping something? 

Well, San Diego State for sure.
Oregon was still playing a lot of run-first D in the second half as we passed the ball over them.