[d4cohn]

For anyone that feels the need, in spite of a win, to decry Shaw’s running the ball with a 7-point lead late in the 4th, I say this:
1) He will never change. 
2) Would you rather have Mike Leach throwing to Quenton Meeks with 3:33 remaining?  23 seconds into this one: https://youtu.be/g02Vs6aW__8
3) Shaw’s playing not to lose most often results in... not losing. There are many proof points and very few counter-examples.  

You can criticize this year’s play-calling in general and our stubborn running to set up the pass rather than vice-versa.  But when it comes to playing with a lead in the 4th, Shaw’s unemotional decision-making and resistance of the urge to step on throats is actually a strength.

I think Cardinal Sagehen makes some very cogent points. I am going to focus on the potential counter-example games, rather than the proof points, in examining this. 

The breadth of our losses in Shaw era:

2011 Oregon (blowout, not close)
2011 Oklahoma State (we played a bit conservative on the final drive in a tied game; however, unlike last night, where the defense pretty much had its way with ASU for most of the night, Oklahoma State's offense (more specifically Blackmon) was torching us, and we didn't want to give their quick-strike offense a chance to win in regulation. However, Jordan should make a 35-yard FG, and the overtime miss too further compounds the point. However, this is the closest game I have encountered so far of where conservative playcalling in a game in which we were either leading or tied may have cost us.)
2012 Washington (didn't turtle)
2012 Notre Dame (didn't turtle, give one to the officials on Stepfan TD)
2013 Utah (playing from behind, lost game)
2013 USC (definitely didn't turtle, as Hogan threw a crucial pick, with us driving, that set up SC with a short field at their own 40 in a tied game; Hedari would go on to kick game winning FG in a game we all want to forget; this is Exhibit A with regards to the potential pitfalls of aggressive playcalling, particularly with a young QB; however, this was at least a tied game at the time)
2013 Rose Bowl (didn't turtle; went for 4th and 3 at Michigan State's 36 in third quarter in a tied ballgame; Hogan also very limited later on in game with a bad shoulder injury)
2014 USC (didn't turtle with play call; however, we did punt on 4th and 13 from USC's 32 in a tied game; Williamson had already missed two kicks in the game, including a 26 yarder, and fourth and 10+ is not exactly a great place to be. Shaw didn't have a whole lot of good options. Punts ball, SC drives for game-winning FG)
2014 Notre Dame (Didn't turtle; Wayne Lyons coverage breakdown for ages on 4th and 11 cost us this game)
2014 Arizona State (Blowout, not close game)
2014 Oregon (Blowout, not close game)
2014 Utah (didn't turtle with play call; however, we did punt on 4th and 7 from Utah 34; this one is closer to where you should go for it, particularly given how much both teams struggled to move football. Other than OK State, this may be the best counter-argument so far, and it was still 4th and long in a tied game; and the offense had not looked good at all, in a 7-7 game)
2015 Northwestern (Just lost, and got dominated)
2015 Oregon (Didn't turtle; shoot-out where we fumble two snaps disastrously, costing us the game)
2016 Washington (blowout, not close game)
2016 Washington State (blowout, not close game)
2016 Colorado (didn't turtle; another fumbled snap by Burns, in a game of offensive ineptitude, costs this one)
2017 USC (blowout, not close game)
2017 San Diego State (didn't turtle; Chryst's inability to complete forward passes cost us in this game; but we did attempt throws on 1st and 3rd down prior to SDSU's game winning drive in the fourth quarter with a 17-13 Card lead; 1st down was sack, 3rd down an incomplete pass to Parkinson)
2017 Washington State (didn't turtle; attempted passes on 1st and 3rd downs in 4th quarter with 21-17 Card lead; 1st down pass went for loss of 1 yard, 3rd down completed just short of sticks; WSU drives down for game winning score)
2017 USC (definitely didn't turtle; going for it on 4th and goal; just didn't convert)
2017 TCU (shootout, didn't turtle; went step for step in scoring with high powered Big 12 offense)
2018 Notre Dame (blowout, not close game)
2018 Utah (blowout, not close game, thanks largely to a pick-six that represented a 14 point swing in a 19 point game)

So the best examples that the people opposed to "turtling" could potentially come up with are Oklahoma State 2011, USC 2014 and Utah 2014. And frankly, these aren't that clear-cut examples (i.e. there were no games where we had 10-14 point leads and blew the game and lost). All three of these games were tied. In two of three games, Williamson missed very makeable kicks (26 yards and 35 yards). Furthermore, in two of three games, it was fourth and either long or very long, in no-man's land as far as punting/kicking/going for it.

[d4cohn]

For anyone that feels the need, in spite of a win, to decry Shaw’s running the ball with a 7-point lead late in the 4th, I say this:
1) He will never change. 
2) Would you rather have Mike Leach throwing to Quenton Meeks with 3:33 remaining?  23 seconds into this one: https://youtu.be/g02Vs6aW__8
3) Shaw’s playing not to lose most often results in... not losing. There are many proof points and very few counter-examples.  

You can criticize this year’s play-calling in general and our stubborn running to set up the pass rather than vice-versa.  But when it comes to playing with a lead in the 4th, Shaw’s unemotional decision-making and resistance of the urge to step on throats is actually a strength.

I think Cardinal Sagehen makes some very cogent points. I am going to focus on the potential counter-example games, rather than the proof points, in examining this. 

The breadth of our losses in Shaw era:

2011 Oregon (blowout, not close)
2011 Oklahoma State (we played a bit conservative on the final drive in a tied game; however, unlike last night, where the defense pretty much had its way with ASU for most of the night, Oklahoma State's offense (more specifically Blackmon) was torching us, and we didn't want to give their quick-strike offense a chance to win in regulation. However, Jordan should make a 35-yard FG, and the overtime miss too further compounds the point. However, this is the closest game I have encountered so far of where conservative playcalling in a game in which we were either leading or tied may have cost us.)
2012 Washington (didn't turtle)
2012 Notre Dame (didn't turtle, give one to the officials on Stepfan TD)
2013 Utah (playing from behind, lost game)
2013 USC (definitely didn't turtle, as Hogan threw a crucial pick, with us driving, that set up SC with a short field at their own 40 in a tied game; Hedari would go on to kick game winning FG in a game we all want to forget; this is Exhibit A with regards to the potential pitfalls of aggressive playcalling, particularly with a young QB; however, this was at least a tied game at the time)
2013 Rose Bowl (didn't turtle; went for 4th and 3 at Michigan State's 36 in third quarter in a tied ballgame; Hogan also very limited later on in game with a bad shoulder injury)
2014 USC (didn't turtle with play call; however, we did punt on 4th and 13 from USC's 32 in a tied game; Williamson had already missed two kicks in the game, including a 26 yarder, and fourth and 10+ is not exactly a great place to be. Shaw didn't have a whole lot of good options. Punts ball, SC drives for game-winning FG)
2014 Notre Dame (Didn't turtle; Wayne Lyons coverage breakdown for ages on 4th and 11 cost us this game)
2014 Arizona State (Blowout, not close game)
2014 Oregon (Blowout, not close game)
2014 Utah (didn't turtle with play call; however, we did punt on 4th and 7 from Utah 34; this one is closer to where you should go for it, particularly given how much both teams struggled to move football. Other than OK State, this may be the best counter-argument so far, and it was still 4th and long in a tied game; and the offense had not looked good at all, in a 7-7 game)
2015 Northwestern (Just lost, and got dominated)
2015 Oregon (Didn't turtle; shoot-out where we fumble two snaps disastrously, costing us the game)
2016 Washington (blowout, not close game)
2016 Washington State (blowout, not close game)
2016 Colorado (didn't turtle; another fumbled snap by Burns, in a game of offensive ineptitude, costs this one)
2017 USC (blowout, not close game)
2017 San Diego State (didn't turtle; Chryst's inability to complete forward passes cost us in this game; but we did attempt throws on 1st and 3rd down prior to SDSU's game winning drive in the fourth quarter with a 17-13 Card lead; 1st down was sack, 3rd down an incomplete pass to Parkinson)
2017 Washington State (didn't turtle; attempted passes on 1st and 3rd downs in 4th quarter with 21-17 Card lead; 1st down pass went for loss of 1 yard, 3rd down completed just short of sticks; WSU drives down for game winning score)
2017 USC (definitely didn't turtle; going for it on 4th and goal; just didn't convert)
2017 TCU (shootout, didn't turtle; went step for step in scoring with high powered Big 12 offense)
2018 Notre Dame (blowout, not close game)
2018 Utah (blowout, not close game, thanks largely to a pick-six that represented a 14 point swing in a 19 point game)

So the best examples that the people opposed to "turtling" could potentially come up with are Oklahoma State 2011, USC 2014 and Utah 2014. And frankly, these aren't that clear-cut examples (i.e. there were no games where we had 10-14 point leads and blew the game and lost). All three of these games were tied. In two of three games, Williamson missed very makeable kicks (26 yards and 35 yards). Furthermore, in two of three games, it was fourth and either long or very long, in no-man's land as far as punting/kicking/going for it.