10-19-2018, 05:43 PM
(10-19-2018, 02:20 PM)CTcard Wrote: Of course I temper all of this with the fact that it actually did work, that ASU ran out of time, so I shouldn't be too certain of my stance.
"It worked" doesn't mean it was the right decision, and I think there is general consensus on this board about that. As I think D4Cohn has mentioned, when we got the ball back with 2 minutes left in the third quarter and a two touchdown lead, our probability of winning the game was 95%, so at the time we started turtling, we were expected to win the game. Shaw's chosen course of action did lower that probability to 83% when Trevor Speights ran for two yards on third and 12 with a touchdown lead and 6 minutes left in the game, so I think turtling that early hurt us.
All's well that ends well, but some day we will face a team that will throw a touchdown from the 20 yard line with time expiring and then beat us in overtime because Shaw decided to turtle too early.
BC
