[StanfordMatt]

Remember, the Vegas line is all about balancing bets from the public, nothing more.

People always say this, but this is the wrong sophisticated take, IMO. Even if Vegas needs to balance bets from the public, the line should still be a reasonably accurate prediction for the final result. (Otherwise you too could be a successful sports gambler!)

100% accurate. People get too caught up in the distinction between Vegas lines being a prediction of outcomes as opposed to an attempt at drawing an equal amount of bets on each side. In most cases, the two are one in the same. In cases where there is a discrepancy and public money gravitates towards one side, a book will often hold its line steady regardless because it has confidence in its number.

[StanfordMatt]

Remember, the Vegas line is all about balancing bets from the public, nothing more.

People always say this, but this is the wrong sophisticated take, IMO. Even if Vegas needs to balance bets from the public, the line should still be a reasonably accurate prediction for the final result. (Otherwise you too could be a successful sports gambler!)

100% accurate. People get too caught up in the distinction between Vegas lines being a prediction of outcomes as opposed to an attempt at drawing an equal amount of bets on each side. In most cases, the two are one in the same. In cases where there is a discrepancy and public money gravitates towards one side, a book will often hold its line steady regardless because it has confidence in its number.