[donkey687]

[Even if Vegas needs to balance bets from the public, the line should still be a reasonably accurate prediction for the final result. (Otherwise you too could be a successful sports gambler!)

Well, a successful sports gambler knows when to ignore public opinion --- but let's take this out of the realm of spreads, moneylines, underlays, overlays, parlays and teasers for a minute.  We know from both sides of the coin (i.e. Oregon and Utah) that turnovers and mistakes can make all the difference in a close game.  When Costello threw that pick six, it was a 14-point swing.  A missed field goal is a 3-point swing.  Lots of other single plays are in-between in terms of impact.  A 2.5-point spread is really insignificant when you consider that any given "break" can push the outcome to one side or another.  But of course, that's why it's gambling.

The spread doesn’t reflect who “Vegas” thinks will win. It reflects how “Vegas” thinks the public would bet. With all due respect, anyone who doesn’t believe that the spread reflects a need to balance bets from the public, doesn’t know how bookies and sports books make money, which is basically set up to be at around 9% of every two bets they take, with $20 paid out for every $22 wagered.  

If we want to get back to statistics, there have been a lot of studies and analyses run that show a 2.5 to 3-pt spread is basically a coin flip when it comes to who wins the bet, but that the favorite wins the game (regardless of the spread) about 56% of the time.  In our case, that number isn't high enough to give me a real warm and fuzzy feeling about us beating the Cougs.  And it doesn't include the questions of if our OL will get it together, or if Bryce is indeed healthy -- both of which will greatly influence the outcome.

I am not sure that Bryce's health is that important to us winning. I could actually argue that this year we are better off without Bryce as the presence of Bryce causes our play calling to run him into a stacked box with little success. Without Bryce, our coach calls more plays that are more likely to result in more yardage than Bryce is getting with our current OL.

[donkey687]

[Even if Vegas needs to balance bets from the public, the line should still be a reasonably accurate prediction for the final result. (Otherwise you too could be a successful sports gambler!)

Well, a successful sports gambler knows when to ignore public opinion --- but let's take this out of the realm of spreads, moneylines, underlays, overlays, parlays and teasers for a minute.  We know from both sides of the coin (i.e. Oregon and Utah) that turnovers and mistakes can make all the difference in a close game.  When Costello threw that pick six, it was a 14-point swing.  A missed field goal is a 3-point swing.  Lots of other single plays are in-between in terms of impact.  A 2.5-point spread is really insignificant when you consider that any given "break" can push the outcome to one side or another.  But of course, that's why it's gambling.

The spread doesn’t reflect who “Vegas” thinks will win. It reflects how “Vegas” thinks the public would bet. With all due respect, anyone who doesn’t believe that the spread reflects a need to balance bets from the public, doesn’t know how bookies and sports books make money, which is basically set up to be at around 9% of every two bets they take, with $20 paid out for every $22 wagered.  

If we want to get back to statistics, there have been a lot of studies and analyses run that show a 2.5 to 3-pt spread is basically a coin flip when it comes to who wins the bet, but that the favorite wins the game (regardless of the spread) about 56% of the time.  In our case, that number isn't high enough to give me a real warm and fuzzy feeling about us beating the Cougs.  And it doesn't include the questions of if our OL will get it together, or if Bryce is indeed healthy -- both of which will greatly influence the outcome.

I am not sure that Bryce's health is that important to us winning. I could actually argue that this year we are better off without Bryce as the presence of Bryce causes our play calling to run him into a stacked box with little success. Without Bryce, our coach calls more plays that are more likely to result in more yardage than Bryce is getting with our current OL.