If you've never played college football and seen an offense from a defender's perspective--particularly from a safety's perspective--I'm skeptical that you understand what a football play even looks like to a defense, and what makes a good play call in any given case..
To a defender, the unpredictability in any offensive play inheres in the options within every play itself, regardless of the play. And the likelihood that a team will either run or pass in a certain situation is information of no value at all. That's because you cannot afford to defend the likelier play at the expense of being out of position for the less likely one. So this idea that we run 67% on the time on first down, and that tendency makes us easier to defend, for example, is absurd.
"Sorry coach, I didn't think it was likely they'd pass there." There's a reason you never hear that on a sideline.
Again, the deception in a play inheres in each play. Sure, it looks like Love is going to try to break that play inside the tight end, for example But commit to that, Love reads your move, and he breaks the play back inside and runs right past your falling figure.
Coming at you, a run in football looks like a surge of brobdingnagian men obscuring your view of the smaller man with the ball behind them. Where's he going to go? Lots of possibilities. And if the brobdingnagian guys do their job and the smaller guy does, too, your chances of stopping the play before it's at least reasonably successful--a four or five yard gain--are lousy.
It's a game of execution, force, and speed and not, like basketball, a game of deception, cleverness, and creativity. If the other team has more force and speed, they'll probably beat you. If on top of that they execute better, they will overwhelm you. Cleverness and creativity have nothing to do with it. And only a fan who has never played would insist otherwise.
To a defender, the unpredictability in any offensive play inheres in the options within every play itself, regardless of the play. And the likelihood that a team will either run or pass in a certain situation is information of no value at all. That's because you cannot afford to defend the likelier play at the expense of being out of position for the less likely one. So this idea that we run 67% on the time on first down, and that tendency makes us easier to defend, for example, is absurd.
"Sorry coach, I didn't think it was likely they'd pass there." There's a reason you never hear that on a sideline.
Again, the deception in a play inheres in each play. Sure, it looks like Love is going to try to break that play inside the tight end, for example But commit to that, Love reads your move, and he breaks the play back inside and runs right past your falling figure.
Coming at you, a run in football looks like a surge of brobdingnagian men obscuring your view of the smaller man with the ball behind them. Where's he going to go? Lots of possibilities. And if the brobdingnagian guys do their job and the smaller guy does, too, your chances of stopping the play before it's at least reasonably successful--a four or five yard gain--are lousy.
It's a game of execution, force, and speed and not, like basketball, a game of deception, cleverness, and creativity. If the other team has more force and speed, they'll probably beat you. If on top of that they execute better, they will overwhelm you. Cleverness and creativity have nothing to do with it. And only a fan who has never played would insist otherwise.