10-28-2018, 01:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2018, 01:55 PM by CardinalSagehen.)
We are 5-3 with two tough games and two relatively easier games remaining.
Our three losses have come against well-ranked teams. We do not have a win over any team that is still ranked. Recent losses by Oregon, USC and SDSU have hurt us in that respect.
None of our remaining games are against ranked teams. UW is #26 is the new AP Poll - it's possible that the CFP committee could rank them based on their win against Utah. In a best-case scenario, by beating Washington and Cal, we would probably ensure that they remain unranked, unless Washington ends up 8-4 with a season-ending win over Wazzu.
If you're a super optimist, you are imagining two losses by Wazzu (with 3 of 4 games at home, and the only road game @ COLO) and our running the table, which would put us at 9-3 in the CCG and presumably give us another crack at a ranked team. With the way that Arizona and Cal played last night, anything's possible.
I looked at the multi-way tie scenarios and they basically all require Wazzu to lose two more games anyway. The best thing that could happen to put us right back into the mix would be a Cal win @ Wazzu next week, which would be even more surprising than their win vs. UW.
Meanwhile, with our remaining schedule, reasonable odds are that we end up 2-2 or 3-1 over the last 4 games. This would put us at 7-5 or 8-4 with no wins against ranked teams. At 8-4, we might actually come in 3rd in the Pac 12 and receive a matchup with a ranked bowl opponent, at least.
So, all in all, the season's outlook appears pretty grim compared to most of our hopes. It's looking a lot like 2014, except the upside looking ahead to next season isn't quite as visible, at least not yet. Despite it all, I'll be glued to the screen next Saturday at 6PM and probably watching the Cal/Wazzu game, too!
Any other perspectives on how our season is projecting? Or qualitative things that you'd like to see between now and the bowl game?
Our three losses have come against well-ranked teams. We do not have a win over any team that is still ranked. Recent losses by Oregon, USC and SDSU have hurt us in that respect.
None of our remaining games are against ranked teams. UW is #26 is the new AP Poll - it's possible that the CFP committee could rank them based on their win against Utah. In a best-case scenario, by beating Washington and Cal, we would probably ensure that they remain unranked, unless Washington ends up 8-4 with a season-ending win over Wazzu.
If you're a super optimist, you are imagining two losses by Wazzu (with 3 of 4 games at home, and the only road game @ COLO) and our running the table, which would put us at 9-3 in the CCG and presumably give us another crack at a ranked team. With the way that Arizona and Cal played last night, anything's possible.
I looked at the multi-way tie scenarios and they basically all require Wazzu to lose two more games anyway. The best thing that could happen to put us right back into the mix would be a Cal win @ Wazzu next week, which would be even more surprising than their win vs. UW.
Meanwhile, with our remaining schedule, reasonable odds are that we end up 2-2 or 3-1 over the last 4 games. This would put us at 7-5 or 8-4 with no wins against ranked teams. At 8-4, we might actually come in 3rd in the Pac 12 and receive a matchup with a ranked bowl opponent, at least.
So, all in all, the season's outlook appears pretty grim compared to most of our hopes. It's looking a lot like 2014, except the upside looking ahead to next season isn't quite as visible, at least not yet. Despite it all, I'll be glued to the screen next Saturday at 6PM and probably watching the Cal/Wazzu game, too!
Any other perspectives on how our season is projecting? Or qualitative things that you'd like to see between now and the bowl game?