[stupac2]

So generally, the math would say that Montgomery made the right play there.  In general, if you are behind (especially late in the game), your risk tolerance as a team should increase.  So, you would accept the risk of starting behind the 20 yard line (or of fumbling) in order for the smallish chance of the return going for a touchdown or starting with very good field position. 

Of course, as a player, if your coach tells you not to do something and you do it, well, you made the wrong play, regardless of whether return it for a touchdown or fumble the ball (though I wonder if Montgomery had made a big play there how much we would hear about the dirty laundry). 

BC

I don't think that's necessarily true. In general underdogs do want to try to increase the variance of the game, but you have to weigh that based on what you're good at. Montgomery in his career has 35 returns for 794 yards (average of 22.7) and 0 TDs, with a long of 46. Meanwhile, you have Rodgers at QB, both of the Rams' starting CBs are banged up (one is out, the other playing through it), and the previous drive only failed to get points because Montgomery completely blew a blitz pickup (Rodgers had Adams streaking wide open but was sacked before he could throw it), and the two drives before that were both TDs (and fast, 5 plays to go 75 yards each time!).

So, yeah, in general you can make the argument that Montgomery made a smart play, but in this specific case pretty much every possible way you can think to look at it says he made a really dumb one.

[stupac2]

So generally, the math would say that Montgomery made the right play there.  In general, if you are behind (especially late in the game), your risk tolerance as a team should increase.  So, you would accept the risk of starting behind the 20 yard line (or of fumbling) in order for the smallish chance of the return going for a touchdown or starting with very good field position. 

Of course, as a player, if your coach tells you not to do something and you do it, well, you made the wrong play, regardless of whether return it for a touchdown or fumble the ball (though I wonder if Montgomery had made a big play there how much we would hear about the dirty laundry). 

BC

I don't think that's necessarily true. In general underdogs do want to try to increase the variance of the game, but you have to weigh that based on what you're good at. Montgomery in his career has 35 returns for 794 yards (average of 22.7) and 0 TDs, with a long of 46. Meanwhile, you have Rodgers at QB, both of the Rams' starting CBs are banged up (one is out, the other playing through it), and the previous drive only failed to get points because Montgomery completely blew a blitz pickup (Rodgers had Adams streaking wide open but was sacked before he could throw it), and the two drives before that were both TDs (and fast, 5 plays to go 75 yards each time!).

So, yeah, in general you can make the argument that Montgomery made a smart play, but in this specific case pretty much every possible way you can think to look at it says he made a really dumb one.