10-29-2018, 01:26 PM
This isn’t a question of underdogs wanting to increase variance; it’s a question of the team that is behind wanting to increase variance. There are a lot of reasons to have expected Green Bay to be able to score even if Montgomery had taken a knee, but on balance, an abstract return would have increased the teams ability to score; the downside of a below average return was small compared to the upside of a big return. The fact that the offense was able to move the ball generally tempered that benefit, but sacks, drops, fumbles and interceptions happen on plays from scrimmage too.
Per espn’s analysis (and with all the caveats that entails), when the Rams kicked the go ahead field goal with 2 min left, the Rams had about a two in three chance of winning, so Rogers driving 50 yards in two minutes to set up a game winning field goal was by no means a sure thing, despite all the things you mentioned.
Montgomery was wrong to bring the ball out because you can’t have players disregarding coaching instructions. But to be honest, McCarthy was wrong to tell Montgomery to take a knee.
BC
Per espn’s analysis (and with all the caveats that entails), when the Rams kicked the go ahead field goal with 2 min left, the Rams had about a two in three chance of winning, so Rogers driving 50 yards in two minutes to set up a game winning field goal was by no means a sure thing, despite all the things you mentioned.
Montgomery was wrong to bring the ball out because you can’t have players disregarding coaching instructions. But to be honest, McCarthy was wrong to tell Montgomery to take a knee.
BC