[CTcard]

The decline of our OL has occurred so insidiously we failed to notice.  ..

The problem started in 2014.  It started with me screaming at Murphy and Caspers for false starting, two different guys for costly chop blocks, and a surge in sacks allowed. 
...

Football Outsiders tracks this stuff obsessively,  Here are our for adjusted (to the quality of the defense) yards per carry over the last five seasons:
2014: 59
2015: 41 (Mac 2)
2016: 48 (Mac 3)
2017: 74 (Love 3)
2018: 124 (Love 4)

And the pass protection numbers—our ranking for sacks allowed as a percentage of passes attempted plus sacks:
2014:  59
2015:  62
2016: 125 
2017: 17
2018: 44

Hulk,

You and I have had several back and forths on this forum discussing the several year decline in the OL. While I think it is quite clear that I agree with the overall thrust of your comments here, there are enough caveats to the details that it makes a difference in an overall analysis.

First of all, a few words on the numbers. It looks like you put these together a week ago or so, yes? The current ranking for Adjusted Line Yards is 126th and Sack Rate 39. So, pass blocking on they way up, rushing down. Adjusted Line Yards is not really yds/carry as they adjust heavily to try to factor out the quality of the RB. That seems an over-adjustment to me, but as far as I know there is no way to say whether it "works" or not.  
But, none of the broad points depend upon the numbers to that level of detail.

One problem with the statement "The probelm started in 2014" is that we don't have similar numbers before 2014 - this is how far back the FootballOutsiders OL stat data base goes. My general memory is that Stanford never looked particularly great in related FootballOutsiders rushing numbers, so it is not at all clear that 2014 was worse than previously.


Over the years, there have been various areas of strength and weakness coming and going. That complicates the analysis of the OL progresssion, and makes it clear it's not just one thing. 

In 2014 the offense generally could move the ball but consistently made critical mistakes that cost points and games (presumably much related to your screaming). The running game suffered, but not that terribly considering that the RBs were lesser that year - at least until McCaffrey started playing. One big problem is that the coaching staff thought they could be an all-passing team and the team just wasn't good at that.

In 2015 the offense was great if overly slow paced. It was #2 in the country in pts/drive; #1 among Power 5 teams. McCaffrey helped the OL look good, but despite some somewhat middling rankings on FootballOutsiders I don't really have serious complaints about OL performance in 2015.

In 2016 the yds/carry of the RBs actually went up versus 2015. The total was down, primarily because instead of Hogan running we had Burns and Chryst getting sacked (note the terrible pass protection ranking you list), but McCaffrey averaged 6.34 yds/carry in 2016 vs 5.99 in 2015 despite being injured and having much less support from the pass game. The OL did have problems in 2016, but primarily in awful pass protection.

In 2017 the pass protection got better (Hall in particular was a new man). However, the run game turned into either a stuff or a homerun by Love, with relatively little inbetween. It was almost as if after 2016 Bloomgren was determined to improve the pass protection and practiced nothing but that ever.

Of course in 2018 the trend has continued. The pass protection hasn't always been great, but by and large pretty good considering the circumstances. The run game, by contrast, is gone. Somehow, Stanford is one of the very worst running teams in the country. Compounding that problem is that the coaching staff apparently did not see this coming and still at this point we're improvising the offense (with generally positive results in the passing game - but the TOs and negative plays that come with it).


There's also personnel issues. It's too much for right now, but I would note that before this year, the poorer years of OL performance seemed to be closely tied with an inexperienced line, or some relatively clear talent issues. While various problems have been building for some time, this year really does stand out for having lots of experience plus lots of apparently individually capable players not coming together and performing adequately.

In summary, the complete collapse this year is related to a slide, but the specific problems in run blocking have only been building for a couple of years.

[CTcard]

The decline of our OL has occurred so insidiously we failed to notice.  ..

The problem started in 2014.  It started with me screaming at Murphy and Caspers for false starting, two different guys for costly chop blocks, and a surge in sacks allowed. 
...

Football Outsiders tracks this stuff obsessively,  Here are our for adjusted (to the quality of the defense) yards per carry over the last five seasons:
2014: 59
2015: 41 (Mac 2)
2016: 48 (Mac 3)
2017: 74 (Love 3)
2018: 124 (Love 4)

And the pass protection numbers—our ranking for sacks allowed as a percentage of passes attempted plus sacks:
2014:  59
2015:  62
2016: 125 
2017: 17
2018: 44

Hulk,

You and I have had several back and forths on this forum discussing the several year decline in the OL. While I think it is quite clear that I agree with the overall thrust of your comments here, there are enough caveats to the details that it makes a difference in an overall analysis.

First of all, a few words on the numbers. It looks like you put these together a week ago or so, yes? The current ranking for Adjusted Line Yards is 126th and Sack Rate 39. So, pass blocking on they way up, rushing down. Adjusted Line Yards is not really yds/carry as they adjust heavily to try to factor out the quality of the RB. That seems an over-adjustment to me, but as far as I know there is no way to say whether it "works" or not.  
But, none of the broad points depend upon the numbers to that level of detail.

One problem with the statement "The probelm started in 2014" is that we don't have similar numbers before 2014 - this is how far back the FootballOutsiders OL stat data base goes. My general memory is that Stanford never looked particularly great in related FootballOutsiders rushing numbers, so it is not at all clear that 2014 was worse than previously.


Over the years, there have been various areas of strength and weakness coming and going. That complicates the analysis of the OL progresssion, and makes it clear it's not just one thing. 

In 2014 the offense generally could move the ball but consistently made critical mistakes that cost points and games (presumably much related to your screaming). The running game suffered, but not that terribly considering that the RBs were lesser that year - at least until McCaffrey started playing. One big problem is that the coaching staff thought they could be an all-passing team and the team just wasn't good at that.

In 2015 the offense was great if overly slow paced. It was #2 in the country in pts/drive; #1 among Power 5 teams. McCaffrey helped the OL look good, but despite some somewhat middling rankings on FootballOutsiders I don't really have serious complaints about OL performance in 2015.

In 2016 the yds/carry of the RBs actually went up versus 2015. The total was down, primarily because instead of Hogan running we had Burns and Chryst getting sacked (note the terrible pass protection ranking you list), but McCaffrey averaged 6.34 yds/carry in 2016 vs 5.99 in 2015 despite being injured and having much less support from the pass game. The OL did have problems in 2016, but primarily in awful pass protection.

In 2017 the pass protection got better (Hall in particular was a new man). However, the run game turned into either a stuff or a homerun by Love, with relatively little inbetween. It was almost as if after 2016 Bloomgren was determined to improve the pass protection and practiced nothing but that ever.

Of course in 2018 the trend has continued. The pass protection hasn't always been great, but by and large pretty good considering the circumstances. The run game, by contrast, is gone. Somehow, Stanford is one of the very worst running teams in the country. Compounding that problem is that the coaching staff apparently did not see this coming and still at this point we're improvising the offense (with generally positive results in the passing game - but the TOs and negative plays that come with it).


There's also personnel issues. It's too much for right now, but I would note that before this year, the poorer years of OL performance seemed to be closely tied with an inexperienced line, or some relatively clear talent issues. While various problems have been building for some time, this year really does stand out for having lots of experience plus lots of apparently individually capable players not coming together and performing adequately.

In summary, the complete collapse this year is related to a slide, but the specific problems in run blocking have only been building for a couple of years.