[Austroturf]

We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

If WSU finishes in the top 12 and makes a New Years 6 bowl game, the P12 will have only 5 teams (Utah or UW, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, Cal) to fill out the remaining 6 slots:
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12
3. Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten
4. Redbox Bowl vs. Big Ten
5.  Sun Bowl vs. ACC
6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West
7. Cheez-It Bowl vs. Big 12

I assume that the conference championship game loser will play in the Alamo Bowl.

Strictly following the P12 bowl selection guidelines, Stanford will be competition with Oregon (5-4) and Arizona State (5-4) for the remaining bowl slots whether the Cardinal win and finish 6-3 or lose and finish 5-4. If Stanford loses, then Cal enters the picture at 5-4 as well.

I have a more pessimistic take on all of this, as we have been there before (2016).  The "within one game" guideline essentially means that the Alamo through the Sun get to pick freely between Utah, Stanford, Oregon and ASU (assuming UW prevails in the CCG and we knock off the Bears).  As south division champ, Utah will get the Alamo (same fate we had last year as north division champ and loser in the CCG).  That leaves the Holiday, Redbox and Sun for the remaining three.  We cannot drop any further than the Sun Bowl, but the Holiday is no guarantee.  So where do we end up?

The bowls clearly give preference to universities that have large fan bases that travel well.  Stanford is not known for traveling well, especially to minor bowls.  The Cardinal faithful will show up in numbers for something like a Rose Bowl, but otherwise the size of the fan-base and the dispersed nature of Stanford's alumni does not guarantee that lots of tickets will be sold.  Even though we plastered the Hawkeyes in the last Rose Bowl, there was definitely more black and gold in the stands.  So we shouldn't be surprised if the Holiday Bowl ignores our (hopefully) 6-3 record and takes the Ducks, who we defeated.  And I wouldn't put it past the Redbox Bowl to select ASU for the very same reason, especially since our outing there against Maryland in 2014 did not produce a strong showing by the Cardinal faithful. (But, frankly, who wants the Redbox Bowl????).    

So my expectation is Sun Bowl if we beat Cal and Las Vegas Bowl if we lose to Cal.  As simple as that.  The only way we get the Holiday Bowl is if the Pac-12 intervenes and decides we should be there because it would be a first, while Oregon has been there several times. 

In 2016, a minor variation of this occurred.  Stanford had the 5th best record in the conference behind UW, Colorado, USC and Washington State.  UW went to the CFP, USC got the Rose Bowl, Colorado went to the Alamo Bowl and Wazzu got the Holiday Bowl.  The Sun Bowl was our floor and the Foster Farms was our ceiling that year.  The Foster Farms selection committee opted for the Utes, who were one game back.  This was also due to our poor showing in 2014.  And the Sun Bowl had to take us, because there is some clause stipulating that they have to select in order of Pac-12 ranking (as do the Las Vegas Bowl and the Cactus Bowl). There were no other bowl eligible teams in the Pac-12 that year, so we were the bottom of the pack with our 9-3 overall record (6-3 conference).  Some teams even get New Year's Six bowl games with three losses; we got the Sun Bowl and UNC.

In the end, Stanford is not a great draw for a bowl; and we only tend to get the really good bowl bids if we simply earn it outright (like winning the Pac-12 championship, a division title, or ending up in the top ten rankings like we did in 2010 and 2011).  This is the perfect year for us to get the lowest possible bowl bid in the pecking order.  Sun Bowl if we beat Cal, Vegas bowl if we lose.  Book it.

[Austroturf]

We have to beat Cal first!

BC

Exactly. That's far from a given this year.

If WSU finishes in the top 12 and makes a New Years 6 bowl game, the P12 will have only 5 teams (Utah or UW, Oregon, Stanford, ASU, Cal) to fill out the remaining 6 slots:
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12
3. Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten
4. Redbox Bowl vs. Big Ten
5.  Sun Bowl vs. ACC
6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West
7. Cheez-It Bowl vs. Big 12

I assume that the conference championship game loser will play in the Alamo Bowl.

Strictly following the P12 bowl selection guidelines, Stanford will be competition with Oregon (5-4) and Arizona State (5-4) for the remaining bowl slots whether the Cardinal win and finish 6-3 or lose and finish 5-4. If Stanford loses, then Cal enters the picture at 5-4 as well.

I have a more pessimistic take on all of this, as we have been there before (2016).  The "within one game" guideline essentially means that the Alamo through the Sun get to pick freely between Utah, Stanford, Oregon and ASU (assuming UW prevails in the CCG and we knock off the Bears).  As south division champ, Utah will get the Alamo (same fate we had last year as north division champ and loser in the CCG).  That leaves the Holiday, Redbox and Sun for the remaining three.  We cannot drop any further than the Sun Bowl, but the Holiday is no guarantee.  So where do we end up?

The bowls clearly give preference to universities that have large fan bases that travel well.  Stanford is not known for traveling well, especially to minor bowls.  The Cardinal faithful will show up in numbers for something like a Rose Bowl, but otherwise the size of the fan-base and the dispersed nature of Stanford's alumni does not guarantee that lots of tickets will be sold.  Even though we plastered the Hawkeyes in the last Rose Bowl, there was definitely more black and gold in the stands.  So we shouldn't be surprised if the Holiday Bowl ignores our (hopefully) 6-3 record and takes the Ducks, who we defeated.  And I wouldn't put it past the Redbox Bowl to select ASU for the very same reason, especially since our outing there against Maryland in 2014 did not produce a strong showing by the Cardinal faithful. (But, frankly, who wants the Redbox Bowl????).    

So my expectation is Sun Bowl if we beat Cal and Las Vegas Bowl if we lose to Cal.  As simple as that.  The only way we get the Holiday Bowl is if the Pac-12 intervenes and decides we should be there because it would be a first, while Oregon has been there several times. 

In 2016, a minor variation of this occurred.  Stanford had the 5th best record in the conference behind UW, Colorado, USC and Washington State.  UW went to the CFP, USC got the Rose Bowl, Colorado went to the Alamo Bowl and Wazzu got the Holiday Bowl.  The Sun Bowl was our floor and the Foster Farms was our ceiling that year.  The Foster Farms selection committee opted for the Utes, who were one game back.  This was also due to our poor showing in 2014.  And the Sun Bowl had to take us, because there is some clause stipulating that they have to select in order of Pac-12 ranking (as do the Las Vegas Bowl and the Cactus Bowl). There were no other bowl eligible teams in the Pac-12 that year, so we were the bottom of the pack with our 9-3 overall record (6-3 conference).  Some teams even get New Year's Six bowl games with three losses; we got the Sun Bowl and UNC.

In the end, Stanford is not a great draw for a bowl; and we only tend to get the really good bowl bids if we simply earn it outright (like winning the Pac-12 championship, a division title, or ending up in the top ten rankings like we did in 2010 and 2011).  This is the perfect year for us to get the lowest possible bowl bid in the pecking order.  Sun Bowl if we beat Cal, Vegas bowl if we lose.  Book it.