[CTcard]

I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.

Two problems with your scenario. 

1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up. 
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.

WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.

[CTcard]

I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.

Two problems with your scenario. 

1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up. 
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.

WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.