[CardinalSagehen]

I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.

Two problems with your scenario. 

1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up. 
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.

WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.

Totally agree with you, CT. Another way to state it is that there are 12 spots in the CFP/NY6, Wazzu is #13, and there's no potential for them to pass anyone unless the committee rethinks its assessment of inactive teams including LSU, Florida and Penn State (which it will not do).  None of the active teams ahead of Wazzu would fall below them with a loss (Oklahoma, Clemson, OSU, Georgia, Alabama), except UW and UCF, neither of which helps them.      

In addition, Wazzu's non-conference schedule was crap - Wyoming, San Jose St. and Eastern Washington (FCS). And Pac-12 perception is justifiably down.

[CardinalSagehen]

I don't know why all the pessimism with WSU. They are #13, and likely to move up into the Top 12 in the final rankings after UCF loses to Memphis and/or Texas loses to Oklahoma.

Two problems with your scenario. 

1. Texas is already behind WSU at #14. Texas losing will not help WSU move up. 
2. One group of 5 team is guaranteed to be in one of the NY 6 bowls, so even if UCF loses and no group of 5 team is above WSU, some group of 5 team still gets in over WSU.

WSU looks to be in a tight spot. They might move up over UW if Utah beats UW, putting Utah in the Rose Bowl and WSU in another NY6. The committee might reconsider their ranking of three loss Penn State, LSU, or Florida versus two loss WSU, but that seems unlikely.

Totally agree with you, CT. Another way to state it is that there are 12 spots in the CFP/NY6, Wazzu is #13, and there's no potential for them to pass anyone unless the committee rethinks its assessment of inactive teams including LSU, Florida and Penn State (which it will not do).  None of the active teams ahead of Wazzu would fall below them with a loss (Oklahoma, Clemson, OSU, Georgia, Alabama), except UW and UCF, neither of which helps them.      

In addition, Wazzu's non-conference schedule was crap - Wyoming, San Jose St. and Eastern Washington (FCS). And Pac-12 perception is justifiably down.