12-02-2018, 08:19 AM
I did venture a guess at Stanford's regular season record. I predicted we would end the season 9-3, with losses to Washington (correct), Notre Dame (correct) and one other team we had no business losing to. I had not heard of Minshew yet, so I had us beating Wazzu at home this year. But I thought there was a chance we might lose to one of Utah, ASU (at their place) or Cal (again, at their place), because we seem to drop a game like this every year. So the difference was the unpredictable Cougs, who I completely expected to be in the bottom half of the north.
The disappearance of our run game and the ineffectiveness of our O-line at run-blocking were the biggest surprises for me, as well. While I accepted some issues in the early games as the O-line struggled to gel and defenses stacked the box against us, I fully expected the run game to come together at some point and predicted at various junctures in the season that Love would finally have a break-out game and rush for over 200 yards. It never happened. The O-line never became a run-blocking force.
I fully expected Costello to have a break-out year; and once Shaw finally accepted that Costello was his only option to salvage the season, we saw what he was capable of. He is not yet a finished piece of work, but he has developed into a true offensive leader and could end up being our next great QB in the Stanford pantheon, alongside the likes of Plunkett, Elway, Luck and Hogan.
I was worried about our defense going into the season and thought my fears were misplaced after the first three games in which we gave up only 23 points (16 if you subtract the UC Davis garbage TD at the end) and led the nation in fewest PPG allowed. Then Oregon happened, then Notre Dame, and my fears became reality. Our final statistics of 23.8 PPG allowed and 415.6 YPG allowed are the worst of the Shaw era; and we actually had a negative total offense differential (-20 yards), continuing a downward trend that began in 2016 (-2 yards) and 2017 (-14 yards). Not an auspicious development. Going forward, the defense remains the largest question mark. Our fortunes in 2019 will depend on reversing this trend and getting back to the days of a stingy D that Shaw can regularly rely on to get the stop.
Shaw made some steps forward this year and showed that he could evolve with the profile of the team. He was clearly uncomfortable doing so (as he stated himself), but he accepted the hand he had been dealt and rolled with it (frankly, he had no choice). I remain convinced that he needs to upgrade the coaching staff and lure some outside talent (yes, high-level talent) that will challenge him and add some additional dimensions to the team. If we end up 9-4 after the bowl game, I would be very frustrated if Shaw took this as vindication of his program and tried to sell the 2018 campaign as a successful season alongside such banner years as 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015. He was coach-of-the-year in the Pac-12 last year with a 9-5 record, so 9-4 is even better, right? And with fewer injuries and the ball bouncing our way a couple more times, we might have been north champions and beaten Utah and been back in the Rose Bowl. Yes, maybe. But this would avoid the hard questions that face him and his staff if they ever want to get back to elite levels again (i.e., top ten) and potentially knock on the door of the CFP. If 9-4 is a season to be proud of, 8-5 is also not bad, and 7-6 is not a disaster, etc. This kind of thinking will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The disappearance of our run game and the ineffectiveness of our O-line at run-blocking were the biggest surprises for me, as well. While I accepted some issues in the early games as the O-line struggled to gel and defenses stacked the box against us, I fully expected the run game to come together at some point and predicted at various junctures in the season that Love would finally have a break-out game and rush for over 200 yards. It never happened. The O-line never became a run-blocking force.
I fully expected Costello to have a break-out year; and once Shaw finally accepted that Costello was his only option to salvage the season, we saw what he was capable of. He is not yet a finished piece of work, but he has developed into a true offensive leader and could end up being our next great QB in the Stanford pantheon, alongside the likes of Plunkett, Elway, Luck and Hogan.
I was worried about our defense going into the season and thought my fears were misplaced after the first three games in which we gave up only 23 points (16 if you subtract the UC Davis garbage TD at the end) and led the nation in fewest PPG allowed. Then Oregon happened, then Notre Dame, and my fears became reality. Our final statistics of 23.8 PPG allowed and 415.6 YPG allowed are the worst of the Shaw era; and we actually had a negative total offense differential (-20 yards), continuing a downward trend that began in 2016 (-2 yards) and 2017 (-14 yards). Not an auspicious development. Going forward, the defense remains the largest question mark. Our fortunes in 2019 will depend on reversing this trend and getting back to the days of a stingy D that Shaw can regularly rely on to get the stop.
Shaw made some steps forward this year and showed that he could evolve with the profile of the team. He was clearly uncomfortable doing so (as he stated himself), but he accepted the hand he had been dealt and rolled with it (frankly, he had no choice). I remain convinced that he needs to upgrade the coaching staff and lure some outside talent (yes, high-level talent) that will challenge him and add some additional dimensions to the team. If we end up 9-4 after the bowl game, I would be very frustrated if Shaw took this as vindication of his program and tried to sell the 2018 campaign as a successful season alongside such banner years as 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015. He was coach-of-the-year in the Pac-12 last year with a 9-5 record, so 9-4 is even better, right? And with fewer injuries and the ball bouncing our way a couple more times, we might have been north champions and beaten Utah and been back in the Rose Bowl. Yes, maybe. But this would avoid the hard questions that face him and his staff if they ever want to get back to elite levels again (i.e., top ten) and potentially knock on the door of the CFP. If 9-4 is a season to be proud of, 8-5 is also not bad, and 7-6 is not a disaster, etc. This kind of thinking will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.