12-03-2018, 08:27 PM
(12-03-2018, 07:16 PM)BobK Wrote: I’m cherry picking here but fire Dowhauer get Wiggin. Fire Wiggin get Elway. Fire Buddy get Wlat. It doesn’t always work out
Or, how about Kiffin to Sarkisian to Helton to...
Your cherry picking (anecdotal data) is supported by several literature studies, summarized conveniently in this freakonomics blog:
http://freakonomics.com/2012/12/21/is-ch...he-answer/
Quote:We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that did not replace their coach. However, for teams with middling records—that is, teams where entry conditions for a new coach appear to be more favorable—replacing the head coach appears to result in worse performance over subsequent years than comparable teams who retained their coach.
The quote above was from this paper on college football:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full...12.00929.x
The conclusion:
Quote:The findings have important implications for our understanding of how entry conditions moderate the effects of leadership succession on team performance, and suggest that the relatively common decision to fire head college football coaches for poor team performance may be ill advised.
Yes, it applies to football head coaches, but I would suspect even more so to assistant coaches.
And here is fivethirtyeight on pro football, which makes my earlier point about regression to the mean:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...r-falcons/
There are a bunch of studies in other sports, including soccer and basketball.
Remember folks, it's about the Jesses and Joes, not the X's and O's.
BC
