[stupac2]

the retrospectoscope is highly accurate, but it lacks a denominator

Right. The question isn't "Why didn't we recruit this guy?" but rather "how many guys like him would we have to recruit in order to find him?" The answer is likely to be "lots".

Also, as CT points out, it's really pointless to fixate on specific misses. If you think that not recruiting guys like BBK is a problem, then that's one thing (but no one does, because as Hulk points out there was really no reason to think he'd develop into a great player). But our issues are more along the lines of recruiting too few guys in general. If you think that means taking chances on guys like BBK who might never pan out, well, fine. But this fixation on this one specific kid is kinda baffling.

[stupac2]

the retrospectoscope is highly accurate, but it lacks a denominator

Right. The question isn't "Why didn't we recruit this guy?" but rather "how many guys like him would we have to recruit in order to find him?" The answer is likely to be "lots".

Also, as CT points out, it's really pointless to fixate on specific misses. If you think that not recruiting guys like BBK is a problem, then that's one thing (but no one does, because as Hulk points out there was really no reason to think he'd develop into a great player). But our issues are more along the lines of recruiting too few guys in general. If you think that means taking chances on guys like BBK who might never pan out, well, fine. But this fixation on this one specific kid is kinda baffling.