[CardinalSagehen]

- the overall level of randomness of the whole process?

That's what I'd pick. On average you'd expect more highly regarded recruits to be more highly regarded players in college and the NFL, but that's going to require a lot of averaging given the inherent uncertainty and randomness involved.

In fact, I think the role of randomness in outcomes in sports is wildly underappreciated, as in the classic XKCD:

Agreed. The same can be said for college admissions in general. Kids from all over the country face different levels of difficulty, have different teachers, come from different home environments with different levels of access to resources, exhibit different levels of resilience when faced with greater challenges, and develop at different rates. To top it off, once you reach a certain level of observed performance, they’re all really good and it’s hard to draw reliable distinctions.  

But hey, I went to a “safety school” (sarcasm) because Stanford declined me 28 years ago, so I might have a small chip on my shoulder. ;-) For whatever it’s worth, I declined Cal.

[CardinalSagehen]

- the overall level of randomness of the whole process?

That's what I'd pick. On average you'd expect more highly regarded recruits to be more highly regarded players in college and the NFL, but that's going to require a lot of averaging given the inherent uncertainty and randomness involved.

In fact, I think the role of randomness in outcomes in sports is wildly underappreciated, as in the classic XKCD:

Agreed. The same can be said for college admissions in general. Kids from all over the country face different levels of difficulty, have different teachers, come from different home environments with different levels of access to resources, exhibit different levels of resilience when faced with greater challenges, and develop at different rates. To top it off, once you reach a certain level of observed performance, they’re all really good and it’s hard to draw reliable distinctions.  

But hey, I went to a “safety school” (sarcasm) because Stanford declined me 28 years ago, so I might have a small chip on my shoulder. ;-) For whatever it’s worth, I declined Cal.