[ColoradoTree]

The Colts Titans and ravens are tied at eight and six  for  the last wild-card spot, with the Steelers a half game ahead. The Colts And Titans play on the last week of the season while the ravens play against the dangerous chargers. The Steelers have to play against the Saints, so The Colts have a good chance at making the playoffs.

BC

538 sports has a nice tool to look at different scenarios. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...edictions/.

You can look at the probability of any team making the playoffs/winning their division based on different scenarios. As long as you trust 538 predictive abilities on other games. Here's what I gathered from playing with W/L/T for the Colts remaining 2 games:
- TEN - they cannot lose to TEN. If they lose, they're out of the playoffs. If they win, then they have an 86% chance of making the playoffs. If they tie, they have a 58% chance. Will Reich play for a tie if he's facing a similar situation as he faced the first time they played the Texans?
- If they beat both NYG and TEN, then they have a 95% chance of getting in. They do not control their own destiny. They need BAL or PIT to lose/tie some games. 
- The best chance for something positive to happen is this week as BAL travels to LAC and PIT travels to NO. It's a good thing both of those teams still have something to play for.

By that point in the game, I think Reich would have a pretty good idea whether a tie would be enough, right?  No Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football in Week 17, and the only AFC game in the late afternoon window is Chargers @ Broncos, which wouldn't affect playoff seeding.  So, someone upstairs should be able to tell him if punting (and locking up the tie) is enough or not to get into the playoffs. If he's in that spot, I think he plays it differently. A loss means you're out, a win means you're in, and a tie means you're probably in. It's not the same as an early-season game where you're still trying to set the tone of your locker room. You do what it takes to make the playoffs. 

I do expect that result to be decisive. The Titans should take care of Washington this weekend, whose QB misadventures are now the stuff of legend, and the Colts get the same Giants team the Titans just stomped. Two 9-6 teams playing each other in Nashville for the #6 seed.  (Or, if Houston loses its next two games, the division title and likely the #3 seed). 

I figure the Steelers will lose in New Orleans but beat the Bengals at home, putting them at 9-6-1. I figure the Ravens will lose to the Chargers in L.A. and beat the Browns at home, putting them at 9-7. The Steelers would then get the AFC North by a half game and the Ravens would be out, as either the Titans or the Colts (or both--ties are fun) would end up better than 9-7. 

It's not a ridiculous hypothetical, though, because if the remaining games other than Colts-Titans play out as chalk would indicate--say, Steelers losing to the Saints, Ravens losing to the Chargers, Colts beating the Giants, Titans beating Washington--a tie against Tennessee puts Indianapolis in as the 6 seed, because they'd have the better head-to-head record over the Titans, who would also be 9-6-1. In that situation, even those of us who applauded Reich's decision to go for it against Houston would want him to take the tie and get to the playoffs. 

If Houston loses next week at the still-in-it Philadelphia Eagles, however, then the AFC South itself is still within reach, as it would put the Texans at 10-5 with one game (home vs. Jacksonville) to go. If the Colts win out and get to 10-6, they'll have a 4-2 record in the AFC South. If the Texans lose to Philly and then Jacksonville turns it on defensively like they did against the Colts a couple of weeks ago--not impossible, as that defense can throttle you when motivated--then Houston's divisional record would fall to 3-3, giving the Colts the AFC South title on a tiebreaker and making the Texans the 6 seed. But if the Colts and Titans tie, Houston would still be a half game ahead, giving them the division, so depending exactly on where you are in terms of field position/yards to go, etc., it might still make sense to take a calculated risk to try and get a win. (If it's, say, 4th and 5 on the 50 with like 30 seconds left in overtime, I think you basically throw a hail mary, hoping that if you don't catch it for a big gain, then hopefully you at least throw an interception of the "arm punt" variety, and the Titans would still be pinned deep in their own zone.)

[ColoradoTree]

The Colts Titans and ravens are tied at eight and six  for  the last wild-card spot, with the Steelers a half game ahead. The Colts And Titans play on the last week of the season while the ravens play against the dangerous chargers. The Steelers have to play against the Saints, so The Colts have a good chance at making the playoffs.

BC

538 sports has a nice tool to look at different scenarios. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201...edictions/.

You can look at the probability of any team making the playoffs/winning their division based on different scenarios. As long as you trust 538 predictive abilities on other games. Here's what I gathered from playing with W/L/T for the Colts remaining 2 games:
- TEN - they cannot lose to TEN. If they lose, they're out of the playoffs. If they win, then they have an 86% chance of making the playoffs. If they tie, they have a 58% chance. Will Reich play for a tie if he's facing a similar situation as he faced the first time they played the Texans?
- If they beat both NYG and TEN, then they have a 95% chance of getting in. They do not control their own destiny. They need BAL or PIT to lose/tie some games. 
- The best chance for something positive to happen is this week as BAL travels to LAC and PIT travels to NO. It's a good thing both of those teams still have something to play for.

By that point in the game, I think Reich would have a pretty good idea whether a tie would be enough, right?  No Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football in Week 17, and the only AFC game in the late afternoon window is Chargers @ Broncos, which wouldn't affect playoff seeding.  So, someone upstairs should be able to tell him if punting (and locking up the tie) is enough or not to get into the playoffs. If he's in that spot, I think he plays it differently. A loss means you're out, a win means you're in, and a tie means you're probably in. It's not the same as an early-season game where you're still trying to set the tone of your locker room. You do what it takes to make the playoffs. 

I do expect that result to be decisive. The Titans should take care of Washington this weekend, whose QB misadventures are now the stuff of legend, and the Colts get the same Giants team the Titans just stomped. Two 9-6 teams playing each other in Nashville for the #6 seed.  (Or, if Houston loses its next two games, the division title and likely the #3 seed). 

I figure the Steelers will lose in New Orleans but beat the Bengals at home, putting them at 9-6-1. I figure the Ravens will lose to the Chargers in L.A. and beat the Browns at home, putting them at 9-7. The Steelers would then get the AFC North by a half game and the Ravens would be out, as either the Titans or the Colts (or both--ties are fun) would end up better than 9-7. 

It's not a ridiculous hypothetical, though, because if the remaining games other than Colts-Titans play out as chalk would indicate--say, Steelers losing to the Saints, Ravens losing to the Chargers, Colts beating the Giants, Titans beating Washington--a tie against Tennessee puts Indianapolis in as the 6 seed, because they'd have the better head-to-head record over the Titans, who would also be 9-6-1. In that situation, even those of us who applauded Reich's decision to go for it against Houston would want him to take the tie and get to the playoffs. 

If Houston loses next week at the still-in-it Philadelphia Eagles, however, then the AFC South itself is still within reach, as it would put the Texans at 10-5 with one game (home vs. Jacksonville) to go. If the Colts win out and get to 10-6, they'll have a 4-2 record in the AFC South. If the Texans lose to Philly and then Jacksonville turns it on defensively like they did against the Colts a couple of weeks ago--not impossible, as that defense can throttle you when motivated--then Houston's divisional record would fall to 3-3, giving the Colts the AFC South title on a tiebreaker and making the Texans the 6 seed. But if the Colts and Titans tie, Houston would still be a half game ahead, giving them the division, so depending exactly on where you are in terms of field position/yards to go, etc., it might still make sense to take a calculated risk to try and get a win. (If it's, say, 4th and 5 on the 50 with like 30 seconds left in overtime, I think you basically throw a hail mary, hoping that if you don't catch it for a big gain, then hopefully you at least throw an interception of the "arm punt" variety, and the Titans would still be pinned deep in their own zone.)